The polls also show that Erdogan's major pre-election target, the HDP, may do slightly better this time around, in part because he has totally alienated the Kurdish community. The Kurds make up 20 percent of the population and about 17 to 18 percent of the voting population.
If the polls are correct, Turkey will have a divided government, and that will create its own dangers.
First, there are the President's increasingly authoritarian stratagy.
Erdogan, for instance, says he is no longer bound by the constitution because he is the first directly elected president in Turkish history. He won that post with 52 percent of the vote in 2014. Presidents are normally appointed by the parliament and are supposed to be non-partisan. Abdurrahim Boynukalin, the leader of the AKP's youth wing and a deputy in the parliament, said recently that, "Whatever the results of the election on November 1, we will make him [Erdogan] the leader."
Second, the AKP may form an alliance with the ultra-rightwing National Action Party, which would almost certainly mean an escalation of the war against the Kurds and put into positions of power an organization that celebrates violence and is openly contemptuous of democracy. While the merger would still not give the AKP the 400 seat super majority it needs to amend the constitution, it would have a chilling effect on political activity.
There is also the possibility of a "grand coalition" government with the secular People's Republican Party, the second largest in the parliament. But that would require sharing power, not one of Erdogan's strong suits.
There are, however, strong counter-trends.
In spite of Erdogan's flirtation with authoritarian rule, Turkey is still a democracy, and its military shows no interest in intervening in civil affairs. Indeed, there is some unrest in the military over the Kurdish war, and the government has been denounced at several military funerals. The military has also made it quite clear that they have no interest in getting involved in the Syrian civil war.
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
