Is Israel really planning to attack Iran, or are declarations about the possibility of a pre-emptive strike at Teheran's nuclear program simply bombast? Does President Obama's "we have your back" comment about Israel mean the U.S. will join an assault? What happens if the attack doesn't accomplish its goals, an outcome predicted by virtually every military analyst? In that case, might the Israelis, facing a long, drawn out war, resort to the unthinkable: nuclear weapons?
Such questions almost seem bizarre at a time when Iran and negotiators from the P5+1 -- the U.S., China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- appear to be making progress at resolving the dispute over Teheran's nuclear program. And yet the very fact that a negotiated settlement seems possible may be the trigger for yet another war in the Middle East.
A dangerous new alliance is forming in the region, joining Israel with Saudi Arabia and the monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, thus merging the almost bottomless wealth of the Arab oil kings with the powerful and sophisticated Israeli army. Divided by religion and history, this confederacy of strange bedfellows is united by its implacable hostility to Iran. Reducing tensions is an anathema to those who want to isolate Teheran and dream of war as a midwife for regime change in Iran.
How serious this drive toward war is depends on how you interpret several closely related events over the past three months.
First was the announcement of the new alliance that also includes the military government in Egypt. That was followed by the news that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were stocking up on $10.8 billion worth of U.S. missiles and bunker busters. Then, in mid-October, Israel held war games that included air-to-air refueling of warplanes, essential to any long-range bombing attack. And lastly, the magazine Der Spiegel revealed that Israel is arming its German-supplied, Dolphin-class submarines with nuclear tipped cruise missiles.
Saber rattling? Maybe. Certainly a substantial part of the Israeli military and intelligence community is opposed to a war, although less so if it included the U.S. as an ally.
Opponents of a strike on Iran include Uzi Arad, former director of the National Security Council and a Mossad leader; Gabi Ashkenazi, former Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff; Ami Ayalon and Yuval Diskin, former heads of Shin Bet; Uzi Even, a former senior scientist in Israel's nuclear program; Ephraim Halevy, former Mossad head; Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, and Shaul Mofaz, former IDF chiefs of staff; Simon Peres, Israeli president; Uri Sagi, former chief of military intelligence; and Meir Dagan, former head of Mossad, who bluntly calls the proposal to attack Iran "The stupidest thing I ever heard."
Mossad is Israel's external intelligence agency, much like the American CIA. Shin Bet is responsible for internal security, as with the FBI and the Home Security Department.
However, an Israeli attack on Iran does have support in the U.S. Congress, and from many former officials in the Bush administration. Ex-Vice-President Dick Cheney says war is "inevitable."
But U.S. hawks have few supporters among the American military. Former defense secretary Robert Gates says "such an attack would make a nuclear armed Iran inevitable" and "prove catastrophic, haunting us for generations in that part of the world." Former Joint Chief of Staff vice-chair Gen. James Cartwright told Congress that the U.S. would have to occupy Iran if it wanted to end the country's nuclear program, a task virtually everyone agrees would be impossible.
In interviews last fall, reporter and author Mark Perry found that U.S. intelligence had pretty much worked out the various options the Israelis might use in an attack. None of them were likely to derail Iran's nuclear program for more than a year or two.
Israel simply doesn't have the wherewithal for a war with Iran. It might be able to knock out three or four nuclear sites -- the betting is those would include the heavy water plant at Arak, enrichment centers at Fordow and Natanz, and the Isfahan uranium-conversion plant -- but much of Iran's nuclear industry is widely dispersed. And Israel's bunker busters are not be up to job of destroying deeply placed and strongly reinforced sites.
Israel would not be able to sustain a long-term bombing campaign because it doesn't have enough planes, or the right kind. Most of its air force is American made F-15 fighters and F-16 fighter-bombers, aircraft that are too fragile to maintain a long bombing campaign and too small to carry really heavy ordinance.
Of course, Israel could also use its medium and long-range Jericho II and Jericho III missiles, plus submarine-fired cruise missiles, but those weapons are expensive and in limited supply. They all, however, can carry nuclear warheads.
But as one U.S. Central Command officer told Perry, "They'll [the Israelis] have one shot, one time. That's one time out and one time back. And that's it." Central Command, or Centcom, controls U.S. military forces in the Middle East.
A number of U.S. military officers think the Israelis already know they can't take out the Iranians, but once the bullets start flying Israel calculates that the U.S. will join in. "All this stuff about 'red lines' and deadlines is just Israel's way of trying to get us to say that when they start shooting, we'll start shooting," retired Admiral Bobby Ray Inman told Perry. Inman specialized in intelligence during his 30 years in the Navy.