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Middle East Plots

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Conn Hallinan
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Turkey has long been a major conduit for weapons, supplies, and fighters for the anti-Assad forces, and Saudi Arabia and most of its allies in the Gulf Coordination Council, representing the monarchies of the Middle East, have funneled money to the insurgents. But Saudi Arabia has always viewed the Muslim Brotherhood -- which has a significant presence in Syria and in countries throughout the region -- as a threat to its own monarchy.

The fact that Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party is an offshoot of the Brotherhood has caused friction with the Saudis. For instance, while Turkey denounced the military coup against the elected Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, Saudi Arabia essentially bankrolled the takeover and continues to bail Cairo out of economic trouble.

But all that was water under the bridge when it came to getting rid of Assad. The Turks and the Saudis have established a joint command center in the newly conquered Syrian province of Idlib and have begun pulling the kaleidoscope of Assad opponents into a cohesive force.

A War on Hezbollah?

Three years of civil war has whittled the Syrian Army from 250,000 in 2011 to around 125,000 today, but Damascus is bolstered by Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters. The Lebanese Shiite organization that fought Israel to a draw in 2006 is among the Assad regime's most competent forces.

Which is where the Israeli leak comes in.

The timing of the story -- published on May 12 in The New York Times -- was certainly odd, as was the prominence given a story based entirely on unnamed "senior Israeli officials." If the source was obscured, the message was clear: "We will hit Hezbollah hard, while making every effort to limit civilian casualties as much as we can," the official said. But "we do not intend to stand by helplessly in the face of rocket attacks."

The essence of the article was that Hezbollah is using civilians as shields in southern Lebanon, and the Israelis intended to blast the group regardless of whether civilians are present or not.

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Conn M. Hallinan is a columnist for Foreign Policy In Focus, Ã ??A Think Tank Without Walls, and an independent journalist. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of California, Berkeley. He oversaw (more...)
 
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