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As early as January 17, "the Hague tribunal of the United Nations will tell us that (Hezbollah members) killed....Rafiq Hariri." America demands it. So does France, Britain and Israel to strike another blow against its effective resistance.
Until resolved, Lebanon has no government. On January 17, President Michel Suleiman will begin formal talks to reestablish one. Fisk calls it "a frightened state," but sees no civil war. It remains to be seen what comes next Tel Aviv and Washington. War seems unlikely, but in a volatile part of the world, nothing can be discounted.
On January 13, middle East analyst As'ad AbuKhalil said he sees little hope in Lebanon for "logical conclusions: they never do." As a result, "expect another lousy compromise to emerge....The absence of a secular alternative ensures (it). We had a chance back in 1976, but (Syria) intervened and prevented the secular leftist outcome of conflict."
"But make no mistake. (Minority interests have) many advantages: the biggest one being the sheer incompetence and ineptitude (of the) Hariri" led March 14 Alliance. However, the real wild card remains what Washington and Israel may do if things don't go their way. Belligerence, not diplomacy, is their usual option. Lebanon has many scars to prove it.
Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at Email address removed. Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.
http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/ .
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