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Turmoil in Lebanon

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In 2006, it proved a formidable force against Israel's aggression, holding its own against vaunted IDF forces, humiliated by their inability to prevail, no matter how much destruction and slaughter they inflicted. 

At Israel's urging, Washington declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization like democratically elected Hamas, Palestine's democratically elected government. Both are legitimate resistance/political organizations, not terrorists, but whatever Israel wants, it gets.

On June 7, 2009, Lebanon held parliamentary elections. Though Hezbollah got the highest popular vote, the Hariri coalition won a majority of seats. Under the country's confessional system, they're divided equally between Christians and Muslims, even though the latter comprise two-thirds of the population, and Shiites are 40%, mostly in Hezbollah's controlled south.

America and Israel view a Hezbollah-led government a strategic threat. In 2009, conflict might have followed if it won. Both Washington and Tel Aviv back a Hariri caretaker government, and following Hezbollah's pullout, Haaretz Service, on January 13 headlined, "IDF troops on alert following collapse of Lebanon government," saying:

Forces "stationed in the north were on alert Thursday over worries that the political turmoil....might spill over into renewed violence on their shared border....A senior officer in Israel's northern command said commanders were following events....very closely for any sign Hezbollah might try to heat up the already jittery northern border to deflect attention from the political turmoil."

Hezbollah responds only to Israeli aggression. It remains to be seen if IDF provocations follow. It's likely if Hezbollah wrests control. However, Lebanon's Daily Star reports Hariri's March 8 Alliance majority may name him prime minister.

A later January 15 report said he seeks dialogue as the only solution, while at the same time blaming Hezbollah and its allies for the collapse of Saudi-Syrian efforts to reach a negotiated solution. 

It also said parliament is nearly evenly split with Walid Jumblatt's 12 MPs holding decisive votes. On Saturday, he met with Hariri before planned Damascus talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad. 

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