His apology to the Russians after shooting down one of their fighter-bombers is a case in point. Erdogan first threatened Moscow with war, but eventually trotted off to St. Petersburg, hat in hand, to make nice with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And after hinting that the Americans were behind the 2016 coup, he recently met with Tillerson in Istanbul to smooth things out. Turkey recognizes that it will need Moscow and Washington to settle the war in Syria.
The Russians have been carefully neutral, consulted with Turkey and Iran, and have called on all parties to peacefully resolve their differences.
The Risks of Doubling Down
There isn't likely to be a quick end to the Qatar crisis, because Saudi Arabia keeps doubling down on one disastrous foreign policy decision after another, including breaking up the Arab world's only viable economic bloc. But there are developments in the region that may eventually force Riyadh to back off.
The Syrian war looks like it's headed for a solution, although the outcome is anything but certain. The Yemen war has reached crisis proportions -- the UN describes it as the number one human emergency on the globe -- and pressure is growing for the U.S. and Britain to wind down their support for the Saudi-led alliance. And Iran is slowly but steadily reclaiming its role as a leading force in the Middle East and Central Asia.
There is much that could go wrong. There could be a disastrous war with Iran, currently being pushed by Saudi Arabia, Israel, and neoconservatives in the U.S. Or Russia, the U.S., and Turkey could fall out over Syria. The Middle East is an easy place to get into trouble. But if there are dangers, so too are there possibilities, and from those spring hope.
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