So far, the attempt to blockade Qatar has been more an annoyance than a serious threat to Doha. Turkey and Iran are pouring supplies into Qatar, and the Turks are deploying up to 1,000 troops at a base near the capital. There are also some 10,000 U.S. troops at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, Washington's largest base in the Middle East and one central to the war on the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Any invasion aimed at overthrowing the Qatar regime risks a clash with Turkey and the U.S.
While Egypt is part of the anti-Qatari alliance -- the Egyptians are angry at Doha for not supporting Cairo's side in the Libyan civil war, and the Egyptian regime also hates the Brotherhood -- it is hardly an enthusiastic ally. Saudi Arabia keeps Egypt's economy afloat, and so long as the Riyadh keeps writing checks, Cairo is on board. But Egypt is keeping the Yemen war at arm's length -- it flat out refused to contribute troops and is not comfortable with Saudi Arabia's version of Islam. Cairo is currently in a nasty fight with its own Wahhabist-inspired extremists. Egypt also maintains diplomatic relations with Iran.
Besides the UAE, the other Saudi allies don't count for much in this fight. Sudan will send troops -- if Riyadh pays for them -- but not very many. Bahrain is on board, but only because the Saudi and UAE armies are sitting on local Shiite opposition in the tiny Gulf island. Yemen and Libya are part of the anti-Qatar alliance, but both are essentially failed states. And while the Maldives, another member, is a nice place to vacation, it doesn't have a lot of weight to throw around.
On the other hand, long-time Saudi ally Pakistan has made it clear it's not part of this blockade, nor will it break with Qatar or downgrade relations with Iran. When Riyadh asked for Pakistani troops in Yemen, the national parliament voted unanimously to have nothing to do with Riyadh's jihad on the poorest country in the Middle East.
The largely Muslim nations of Malaysia and Indonesia are also maintaining relations with Qatar, and Saudi ally Morocco offered to send food to Doha. In brief, it's not clear who's more isolated here.
While President Trump supports the Saudis, his Defense Department and State Department are working to resolve the crisis. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson just finished a trip to the Gulf in an effort to end the blockade, and the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee is threatening to hold up arms sales to Riyadh unless the dispute is resolved. The latter is no minor threat. Saudi Arabia would have serious difficulties carrying out the war in Yemen without U.S. weaponry.
In Qatar's Corner
And the reverse of the coin? Doha's allies have a variety of agendas, not all of which mesh.
Iran has working, but hardly warm, relations with Qatar. Both countries need to cooperate to exploit the South Pars gas field, and Tehran appreciated that Doha was always a reluctant member of the anti-Iran coalition, telling the U.S. it could not use Qatari bases to attack Iran.
Iran is certainly interested in anything that divides the GCC. The Iranians would also like Qatar to invest in upgrading Iran's energy industry, and maybe cutting them in on the $177 billion in construction projects that Doha is lining up in preparation for hosting the 2022 World Cup Games. Also, some 30,000 Iranians live in Qatar.
Figuring out Turkey these days can reduce one to reading tea leaves.
On one hand, Ankara's support for Qatar seems obvious. Qatar backs the Brotherhood, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party is a Turkish variety of the Brotherhood, albeit one focused more on power than ideology. Erdogan was a strong supporter of the Egyptian Brotherhood and relations between Cairo and Ankara went into a deep freeze when Egypt's military overthrew the Islamist organization's elected Egyptian president.
Qatar is also an important source of finances for Ankara, whose fragile economy needs every bit of help it can get. Turkey's large construction industry would like to land some of the multi-billion construction contracts the World Cup games will generate. Turkish construction projects in Qatar already amount to $13.7 billion.
On the other hand, Turkey is also trying to woo Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies for their investments. Erdogan even joined in the GCC's attacks on Iran last spring, accusing Tehran of "Persian nationalist expansion," a comment that distressed Turkey's business community. As the sanctions on Iran ease, Turkish firms see that country's big, well-educated population as a potential gold mine.
The Turkish President has since turned down the anti-Iran rhetoric, and Ankara and Tehran have been consulting over the Qatar crisis. The first supportive phone call Erdogan took during the attempted coup last year was from Qatar's emir, and the prickly Turkish President hasn't forgotten that some other GCC members were silent for several days. Erdogan recently suggested that the UAE had a hand in the coup.
Is this personal for Turkey's president? No, but Erdogan is the Middle East leader who most resembles Donald Trump: He shoots from the hip and holds grudges. The difference is that he's far smarter and better informed than the U.S. president and knows when to cut his losses.
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