In his key note address at the 7th IISS-Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) (Pakistan) Workshop in London (subject: South Asian Strategic Stability - Deterrence, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control, Feb 06, 2020), Kidwai said: "Cold Start doctrine (of India) has been neutralised, nuclear deterrence (of Pakistan) holds".
Pakistan's FSD will bring "the international-community rushing into South Asia to prevent a wider conflagration," he added as if for emphasis, and told India that it shouldn't take Pakistan's nuclear capability as a bluff. "Pakistan reserves all options to protect its territorial and ideological interests if a war is imposed (on it)".
Significantly, Pakistan is poised to bring yet another plutonium production reactor online this year, marking a significant increase in its bomb-making potential from four reactors at Khushab.
There is speculation that Pakistan is setting up a fifth reactor in the southwest corner of Khushab nuclear site. Google Earth imagery shows a partially completed reactor, with "a configuration generally similar to that of Khushab IV, though with a different orientation", according to a report on Global Security.Org (Jan 25, 2020).
Based on the size of the cooling towers, experts aver that the power of Khushab V will be, like Khushab IV - about 90 megawatts-thermal (MWth). While Khushab 1 generates 30-40 MWth, the reactors 2 and 3 yield 40-50 MWth each.
These are small reactors by international standards but yield enough plutonium to manufacture more than 12 N-weapons. None of them is under the safeguards of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). If all the four reactors work to their capacity, Pakistan can easily produce 19 to 26 weapons per year.
Already, Pakistan's stockpile is said to be larger than that of United Kingdom, its former colonial master, who had graciously carved the Islamic Republic out of India some seventy-five years ago. One estimate is that both have about 200 N weapons, more than North Korea (about 100), but fewer than Israel and India (the two have about 275 bombs), according to Global Security.Org.
Khalid Kidwai made an interesting remark, which brings into continued relevance Kyle Mizokami's observation "Forget North Korea: Pakistan's nuclear weapons program is truly terrifying".
"Pakistan must shoulder the responsibility of maintaining the vital strategic balance in the conventional and nuclear equation with India as particular determinant of the state of strategic stability in South Asia," said Kidwai in his lecture, adding Pakistan is assured that its FSD will bring "the international-community rushing into South Asia to prevent a wider conflagration".
Is this a new bluffing game or self- delusion at play?
It can be both because while branding India as a destabilising force, and anointing Pakistan as the stabilising power, he brandishes FSD as the new weapon to have Pakistan's way in South Asia.
It may be unfair to conclude on the basis of Khalid Kidwai- Speak that Pakistan is getting ready for a nuclear war with India. But there is no denying that Pakistan is putting in place a robust nuclear capability firstly to deter India and secondly to fight an N-war.
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