Bamboo Capitalist's Games in Doklam

Prime Minister Lotay Tshering is aware of the ground reality. Because he had once gone on record to say that demarcation of the Bhutan-China boundary would be done in the near future but the tri-junction point that involves India, China, and Bhutan would be discussed separately only after the inclusion of India.

Lately, however, he has hinted at a sudden tilt towards China. "There are three of us (Bhuta, China and India). There is no big or small country; all are three equal countries (in the Doklam problem), each counting for one-third," said Tshering.

The Global Times, a part of Chinese State media, has gone one step further by branding India as the "main obstacle" standing in the way of settling the dispute.

As of now China and Bhutan do not have diplomatic relations. Contact and communication is maintained through the Thimpu Mission in New Delhi.

Hitherto, Bhutan has maintained a "neutral" political status with China. It did not travel the Nepal way. And has "a very cordial" relations with India under its 1949 Treaty of Friendship and Coordination.

Moreover, Thimpu has not subscribed to any loans and grants given by China under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

ROLL BACK?

The turn of events pops up the question: Is Bhutan set to roll back its policy of being a buffer state to India to counter China's aggression at the border?

Frankly there are no readymade answers what with President Xi Jinping searching for breathing space on the domestic scene. He is still the new helmsman of China no doubt, but the going has become tough with post-covid economy refusing to look up.

The fact of the matter is that Beijing is resorting to carrot-and-stick policy to deal with Bhutan. Earlier it tried to lure Thimphu but now it has intensified its bully tactics by building roads, bridges and villages on the Bhutanese territory.

China is not happy with the talk of inclusion of India in a possible trilateral talk over Doklam. It wants to resolve all territorial disputes with Bhutan only with Bhutan on board.

How the issue plays out in the days ahead is a Sudoku but clearly China's Bhutan card has a message for India. It can be seen as a message of intimidation or harassment, as a columnist for The Quint wrote, or an impending security threat as some other commentator termed it.

One thing is clear though. It is that "China's border talks with Bhutan are aimed at India."

This Beijing speak is a development New Delhi has to factor in its stride since both countries are locked in a military standoff on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that is into its fourth year.

Also, because, as a Foreign Policy magazine commentary said, "China-Bhutan talks are a part of Chinese strategy to gain crucial advantage over India".

Put simply, not only New Delhi but also the members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) should activate their eyes in the sky and ears on the ground in their larger interest of preparedness.

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