Send a Tweet
Most Popular Choices
Poll Analyses
Share on Facebook 19 Share on Twitter 3 Printer Friendly Page More Sharing
Exclusive to OpEdNews:
OpEdNews Op Eds    H1'ed 2/27/20

Pre-Super Tuesday Predictions

By       (Page 1 of 1 pages) (View How Many People Read This)   9 comments
Follow Me on Twitter     Message Scott Baker
Become a Fan
  (81 fans)

Top hopefuls Buttigieg, Sanders under fire in Democratic debate
Top hopefuls Buttigieg, Sanders under fire in Democratic debate
(Image by rappler.com)
  Details   DMCA

A lot will happen to change the dynamics of the Democratic race for president, starting a week from now, after Super Tuesday.

Notice in the last debate how Warren laid only mild criticism against Sanders. Logically, that makes no sense because they are splitting the progressive vote. Similarly she should lay off Bloomberg because he is helping her by splitting the moderate vote with Biden, Buttigieg, Steyer, and Klobuchar (together, these 5 have more votes than Warren and Sanders, but perhaps the divisions are not so absolute on the voter level, with crossovers between the progressive and moderate wings of the party).

But my point is this: Warren knows she is dangerously behind and may be knocked out next Tuesday. Yes, she can technically continue if, as predicted, she gets no wins, and gets few delegates, or if she can't even clear the 15% hurdle in all states to get ANY delegates. But the money, staff, and other resources, will dry up, and she will start getting the ire of the progressive wing for siphoning votes from Sanders. So, being a politician, she will concede, pledge support for Sanders, and most critically, ask her delegates to shift to Sanders. They are not required to do so, but some will to prevent a brokered convention and to give Sanders a majority. Then she can return to the Senate, head held high.


A more complicated but similar scenario exists for the moderates, but with an important stipulation in that two of the candidates are billionaires who can theoretically continue the race with no donations. Steyer is barely a billionaire, and he may decide that spending a ton of money, being shut out of future debates, and polling around 2% is not his idea of fun. Bloomberg might decide Sanders is such an existential threat (including to his personal wealth) that he should continue and aim for a brokered convention. But if Sanders has the progressive wing to himself, he can still get a majority; that fabled disaffected voter pool might get more fired up if Sanders is the lone progressive and looks like he needs a clear majority to hold off a brokered convention. Getting a majority will get the rest of the party behind him too, however begrudgingly.


I wouldn't rule out a comeback by Biden either. South Carolina, with 54 delegates, is larger than any state that has voted so far, and it's expected to go to him. If he wins by say, over 10%, he may get enough momentum to knock out the others (everyone but Bloomberg in the moderate wing is probably going to quit after Super Tuesday, and they know it too). If Bloomberg can't win any states or even come in a close second in any state on Super Tuesday, he may decide he was wrong about Biden, and drop out to support him. Bloomberg understands numbers very well, and he can see he and Biden are splitting the majority of the moderate vote, with the other three taking another 1/3 between them. (Tulsi Gabbard, bless her, is already a non-factor. She is hoping to win a couple of delegates and emerge as Sanders' pick for V.P. and has already visited one of Sanders' headquarters. It could happen, but she has to win something in terms of delegates to quell the nervousness that is sure to affect the Sanders camp over such a controversial choice. If she is completely shut out, the case for a V.P. spot, especially critical where the president will turn 80 in his first year in office, will be impossible to make).

One thing is for sure, it is going to get very interesting very soon!

 

Well Said 2   Interesting 2   Valuable 2  
Rate It | View Ratings

Scott Baker Social Media Pages: Facebook Page       Twitter Page       Linked In Page       Instagram Page

Scott Baker is a Managing Editor & The Economics Editor at Opednews, and a blogger for Huffington Post, Daily Kos, and Global Economic Intersection.

His anthology of updated Opednews articles "America is Not Broke" was published by Tayen Lane Publishing (March, 2015) and may be found here:
http://www.americaisnotbroke.net/

Scott is a former President of Common Ground-NYC (http://commongroundnyc.org/), a Geoist/Georgist activist group. He has written dozens of articles for (more...)
 

Go To Commenting
The views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
Follow Me on Twitter     Writers Guidelines
Contact AuthorContact Author Contact EditorContact Editor Author PageView Authors' Articles
Support OpEdNews

OpEdNews depends upon can't survive without your help.

If you value this article and the work of OpEdNews, please either Donate or Purchase a premium membership.

STAY IN THE KNOW
If you've enjoyed this, sign up for our daily or weekly newsletter to get lots of great progressive content.
Daily Weekly     OpEdNews Newsletter
Name
Email
   (Opens new browser window)
 

Most Popular Articles by this Author:     (View All Most Popular Articles by this Author)

Obama Explains the FEMA Camps

Was Malaysian Flight MH370 Landed Safely in Afghanistan?

Let the Sun Shine on a State Bank in Florida

Batman, The Dark Knight Rises...and Occupy Wall Street Falls

The Least Productive People in the World

Detroit is Not Broke!

Comments

The time limit for entering new comments on this article has expired.

This limit can be removed. Our paid membership program is designed to give you many benefits, such as removing this time limit. To learn more, please click here.

6 people are discussing this page, with 9 comments


Meryl Ann Butler

Become a Fan Follow Me on Twitter (Member since Jun 5, 2006), 81 fans, 652 articles, 1983 quicklinks, 6032 comments, 7 diaries (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

  New Content

Thanks for this insightful view, Scott!

Submitted on Thursday, Feb 27, 2020 at 10:32:53 PM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (0+)
Help

Chuck Nafziger

Become a Fan
Author 24101
(Member since Oct 12, 2008), 16 fans, 6 articles, 14 quicklinks, 2270 comments (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

  New Content

Are they really "moderate" to you? I consider Bloomberg and Biden more in the category of corrupt conservatives. Warren sleazes into that category too if one looks at her record rather than her verbage.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 12:17:09 AM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (5+)
Help
Indent

Scott Baker

Become a Fan Follow Me on Twitter
(Member since Oct 25, 2008), 81 fans, 289 articles, 1247 quicklinks, 3425 comments, 38 diaries (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook Page Twitter Page Linked In Page Instagram Page

Reply to Chuck Nafziger:   New Content

Compared to Trump, yes. Compared to Sanders and Warren, yes too,at least as far as what they say they'll do.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 12:31:54 AM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (0+)
Help
IndentIndent

Chuck Nafziger

Become a Fan
Author 24101
(Member since Oct 12, 2008), 16 fans, 6 articles, 14 quicklinks, 2270 comments (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Reply to Scott Baker:   New Content

Warren is still a republican.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 3:27:21 AM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (3+)
Help

Stephen Fox

Become a Fan
Author 4578
(Member since Jan 21, 2007), 31 fans, 510 articles, 1037 quicklinks, 3689 comments, 14 diaries (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

  New Content

Bernie will win 11 out of 14 on Super Tuesday.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 3:37:49 AM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (1+)
Help
Indent

Scott Baker

Become a Fan Follow Me on Twitter
(Member since Oct 25, 2008), 81 fans, 289 articles, 1247 quicklinks, 3425 comments, 38 diaries (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook Page Twitter Page Linked In Page Instagram Page

Reply to Stephen Fox:   New Content

Possibly, though Biden recently surged into a strong first place in Florid, again,in the latest polls. Polls are much less reliable then they used to be, however, so one can only generalize broadly using them.

The bigger problem is that the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, do not have a winner-take-all primary system in the States. Under the Democratic system, a candidate has to get at least 15% to get any delegates at all a sort of winner-take-all lite version and other candidates can still get some delegates; compounding the issue even further is that a candidate can win the popular state vote yet still get fewer delegates due to rounding errors, or even outright counting mistakes in tallying up. Both things seem to have resulted in Sanders getting 12 delegates to Buttigieg's 14 delegates in Iowa a contest that the A.P. still refuses to call, even though Iowa itself has.

Without conclusive results, the primaries/caucases will result in a mess set of pluralities with a crowded field.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 8:08:22 AM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (1+)
Help
IndentIndent

Stephen Fox

Become a Fan
Author 4578
(Member since Jan 21, 2007), 31 fans, 510 articles, 1037 quicklinks, 3689 comments, 14 diaries (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Reply to Scott Baker:   New Content
Sad but true, but remember how smart Bernie is: there is a solution or two and he will have it, I believe.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 12:45:46 PM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (2+)
Help

Al Hirschfield

Become a Fan
Author 512932
(Member since Jan 20, 2019), 1 fan, 25 articles, 86 quicklinks, 238 comments (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

  New Content

Judging from what you folks are say, we can expect it to be Sanders/Biden, or perhaps Sanders/Biden/Bloomberg by the time the dust all settles. My biggest concern at this point is if Sanders goes to the convention with the most delegates, but not enough to win on the first ballot, and the Establishment gets they're way (as they usually do) hands the nomination to (most likely) Biden, is that the Sanders supporters would be so royally PO'd that they would sit the election out rather than participate in such a sham, thus handing Trump re-election.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 12:59:50 PM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (4+)
Help

911TRUTH

Become a Fan
Author 15356
(Member since Apr 29, 2008), 26 fans, 2989 comments (How many times has this commenter been recommended?)
Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

  New Content

If people stopped talking about "Electability" and started talking about "Loseability" to trump, Bernie would win every Primary on Super Tuesday and beyond.

They all have the "Loseability" factor, except Bernie.

Submitted on Friday, Feb 28, 2020 at 4:59:28 PM

Author 0
Add New Comment
  Recommend  (2+)
Help

 
Want to post your own comment on this Article? Post Comment