Democratic Debate: 10 Presidential Hopefuls to Take the Stage in Atlanta
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A simple review of the recent polls shows that the mainstream media are ignoring polling trends that favor Bernie Sanders.
The Real Clear Politics web site performs a great service by tracking and archiving most national and state political polls
Unfortunately they don't offer much analysis regarding what the polls reveal, and neither does the media which usually seems more disposed to focus on the latest poll without providing a context or analyzing their reliability.
This then is the first in a series of articles that will seek to fill that void. This is an analysis of national trends of polls tracked by Real Clear Politics since November 2018 through the first week of December 2019 (so far there have been only 3 polls posted in December 2019):
Joe Biden: Biden averaged 28% in sixteen November2019 surveys. That was flat with October, but down from his 41% peak in April after he announced his candidacy. Biden had clearly adopted a strategy of hiding from the public and the media, and obviously it was not working. Now he is out and about once more doing sparsely attended town halls that are not going well for him, and where he has resumed his daily gaffes. I honestly think he will crash and burn in Iowa, and that should make Sanders the front runner if current trends continue.
(More on this in the Bernie Sanders analysis).
Elizabeth Warren:averaged 18% in November 2019 polls, down from 22% in October. Warren slid to 17% and into third place during the second half of the month. In 3 surveys so far in December she is averaging 14%, again in third. Given that she peaked at 19% in September and had been trending up since June this is a significant decline.
Bernie Sanders: averaged 17% in November 2019, third place behind Elizabeth Warren, but he rose to 18% and second place when Warren began to fall mid-month. Sanders' numbers have remained remarkably consistent, averaging 18% since November 2018. Sanders has steadily closed the once considerable gap versus Joe Biden:
Sanders vs Biden
Monthly Sanders.Biden polling trends based on Real Clear Politics Tracks
Pete Buttigieg: is clearly the surging candidate of the day, but these trends demonstrate that Only Sanders has maintained a surge over time. Buttigieg averaged 9% in November, up from 6% in October, and 5% in September, but that still puts him far behind Sanders and Warren. Quinnipiac had him in second place with 16% in late November, but that seems to have been an outlier. No other November or December poll show him above 12%. He is averaging 10% so far in December which is down from 12% over the previous 6 November polls. This could be the start of his slide. All other November/December polls had Buttigieg ranked fourth, again suggesting that Quinnipiac was an outlier.
Kamala Harris: was next at 4.5% in November, and of course she is now out of the race.
Andrew Yang, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker remain far back at about 2%.