Beginning tomorrow I will be tracking the RealClearPolitics (RCP) final averages with the actual caucus or primary results, and I will also track who is getting it right and who is getting it wrong. Most pollsters got it very wrong in 2016, both in the state primary/caucus polls and thereafter preceding the general election. Both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump significantly over-achieved the respective polls, and almost every pollster called the election, both the popular and electoral college votes for Hillary Clinton. Perhaps the best and most shocking example was Michigan where, according to Real Clear Politics, eighteen polls were conducted in advance of the primary with all eighteen predicting a Hillary Clinton victory by an average of 21.4 percentage points. Bernie Sanders won that primary by 1.5 percentage points, overachieving the Real Clear Politics projected average by 34%. For any number of reasons, which I will spell out in the months ahead, I expect polling to be even less accurate this year. OpEdNews will hold the pollsters accountable because the mainstream media and the Establishment poll tracking sites look the other way in the face of flawed polling methodology and poor results.
There were two new polls in Iowa released over the weekend:
· DFP/Civiqs has Sanders ahead with 28%, Warren in second with 21%, Buttigieg and Biden tied for third at 15%. Klobuchar in fifth at 8%
· Emerson has Sanders at 28%, Biden at 21%, Buttigieg at 15%, Warren at 14%, Klobuchar at 11%.
· Final average of 15 January Iowa polls: Sanders 23%; Biden 21%; Buttigieg 17%; Warren 16%; Klobuchar 9%
You can already see than the polls are all over the place with Sanders in the RCP lead, but with some pollsters calling it for Sanders by as much as +9 points, others calling it for Biden by +6, and one calling it for Buttigieg by + 2. One thing does seem clear though if one studies all the polls objectively: Bernie Sanders is ahead and is surging.
In New Hampshire:
· UMass/Lowel l: Sanders 23%; Biden 22%; Warren 19%; Buttigieg 12%; Gabbard 8%; Klobuchar 7%
· Boston Herald/FPU: Sanders 31%; Biden 24%; Warren 17%; Buttigieg 8%; Klobuchar 4%; Gabbard 3%
· WHDH/Emerson: Sanders 29%; Biden 14%; Buttigieg 13%; Warren 12%; Steyer & Klobuchar 8%; Gabbard & Yang 7%
· January average of 14 polls: Sanders 24%; Biden 19%; Warren & Buttigieg 14%; Klobuchar 6%; Gabbard 5%; Yang 4%; Steyer 3%. Sanders sits atop twelve of those. Early in the month Biden won one by + 4 and Buttigieg won one by + 1. Yet the pollsters are showing vastly different results even for Bernie Sanders. They show him ahead down the stretch by anywhere from + 1 to + 15.
· Final week of January: Sanders 28%; Biden 19%; Warren 15%; Buttigieg 12%; Klobuchar 6%; Gabbard 5%; Yang 3%; Steyer 3%
· RCP Average: Bernie Sanders by + 9.
Sanders is clearly pulling away in New Hampshire. Gabbard is surging, which I attribute to a backlash against CNN arrogantly scheduling town halls for every candidate on the eve of the primary everyone except Tulsi, that is. They have not responded to inquiries from the media or Gabbard with a reason for their boycott of Gabbard.
Finally, almost all of the pollsters are now asking respondents how certain they are about how they will vote. Sanders is coming out way ahead of the pack when this question is asked.