The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East began a profound transformation beginning with the 'Arab Spring' in 2011. The current US-Israeli war on Iran is the latest link in the chain of events shaping the region.
In the decades after 1948, the Middle Eastern conflict was perceived to be a Palestinian-Israeli conflict over land, human rights and freedom. However, the US and Israel have been successful in the last few decades in shifting the focus away from the Palestinian issue to a fragmented Sunni-Shia divide.
Proponents of this view argue that this transformation did not occur organically but was facilitated through a combination of political influence, media engagement, and the amplification of sectarian discourse. According to this narrative, significant resources were directed toward influencing religious figures and media platforms across the Arab world, contributing to the intensification of intra-Islamic divisions. Over time, these divisions have, in some cases, redefined perceptions of "the enemy," with sectarian identities overshadowing the broader geopolitical conflict with Israel.
Gulf Arab countries had promoted political Islam, also termed 'Radical Islam'. Sunni Clerics traveled widely exposing extremist views, while Arab media promoted these concepts. The Arab Spring violence played out in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Syria fueled by Sunni radicals.
Iran, which is mainly Shiite, took a position of fighting against the Sunni extremists battling the Assad regime in Syria. The Arab Spring not only changed governments, but fueled the sectarian strife between Sunnis and Shiites.
In some areas, sectarian divides have become more important than the Palestinian cause, which raises questions about the long-term implications for unity and security.
Netanyahu's "Six-Way Alliance" and the Prospect of a New Regional Order
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said recently that Israel is working to establish a "six-way alliance" encompassing countries such as India, Greece, and Cyprus, alongside unnamed Arab, African, and Asian partners.
Analysts suggest that this initiative reflects a broader vision of a 'New Middle East', one that departs significantly from the traditional alignments of the past four decades. The proposed alliance is seen as part of a strategic effort to reshape regional dynamics, potentially marking the end of existing axis-based confrontations and the beginning of a new era defined by shifting partnerships and security-oriented cooperation.
The Arab world's leaders have never been united. Jealousies and conspiracies have kept the leaders from forming a united bloc to confront Israel and America politically. However, the Arab citizenry, populations of 22 nations, have generally been united in their belief that Palestinians live under a brutal military occupation and deserve to have human rights, which have been denied to them.
Some observers interpret this development as part of a phase, where states and regional powers are realigning based on emerging threats and interests. Several Arab states have normalized relations with Israel under the 'Abraham Accords' which allowed the Arab countries to have access to the Israeli lobby in the US, AIPAC, which is essential to obtaining Congressional approval for defense and security purchases.
However, these Arab-Israeli alliances have not ended the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, which is the root of all conflict in the region, and the only path towards peace and security for Israel and its neighbors.
The "Dual Threat" Narrative: Sunni and Shia Axes
Israeli and American political rhetoric has increasingly framed the Middle East as a battleground against two distinct "axes": a Shia axis led by Iran and a Sunni axis associated with movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
The 'Axis of Resistance' had been supported by Iran and stretched from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Yemen. In December 2024, Syria was cut off from the Axis, and today the US-Israel war is seeking to dismantle the Axis entirely by destroying Iran.
The communities who supported the resistance were Shiites. Conversely, those who oppose the resistance are Sunnis supported by the US and Israel.
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