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Numbers Prove Sanders Has Earned a Path to White House

By       Message Jean Hay Bright       (Page 1 of 3 pages)     Permalink

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Okay, let's look at this another way.

Or, more of what my spreadsheets tell me:

What happens if we look at the Democratic Party's pledged delegate counts, but exclude the votes that WILL NOT (eight red Deep South states) or CANNOT (all five US Territories) result in any Electoral College votes for a Democrat come November?

Looking at the 34 states that have already voted and which WILL decide the November election, the surprising result is that Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are only 10 pledged delegates apart -- 1,249 for Hillary, 1,239 for Sanders.

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Those 34 states include 12 caucus states, 15 open primary states, and 7 closed primary states.

The WILL NOT states are the eight red Deep South states (Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas) that voted before March 9. Hillary won all of those by big margins, garnering 437 pledged delegates to Bernie's 179.

2012 Electoral College map, Blue won by Democrat, red won by Republican
2012 Electoral College map, Blue won by Democrat, red won by Republican
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No one expects any Democratic electoral college votes to come out of any of those eights southern states come November. Yet a full quarter of Hillary's pledged delegates come from these eight states.

The CANNOT electoral college votes are those from the US Territories (American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico). Voters in these Territories are US Citizens, but, under the US Constitution, only citizens in "states" can vote for President in the actual election in November.

So, pledged delegates won in the territories' count toward determining the Democratic Party's nominee, but cannot help that nominee win the White House.

This might be incidental, but the territories have lots of delegates (87 in all) relative to their size and influence in November. So far, three territories have voted, Hillary Clinton won them all, gaining 12 delegates to Bernie's 7.

Turnout in all three was incredibly low. It took only 40 votes in American Samoa to earn one delegate (237 voters -- total -- turned out), 32 votes per delegate in NMI (189 voters), and 186 votes each in Guam (1,305 voters in all).

In comparison, votes per delegate in the caucus states was just over 2,000 each, in the open primaries about 8,700, and in the closed primaries just under 7,200.

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Virgin Island (7 pledged) votes June 4, Puerto Rico (60 pledged) on June 5.

Deeper Analysis

So, again, excluding those eight early Deep South states and the US territories, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are only 10 pledged delegates apart.

Looking deeper into those WILL states, what do we find?

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Writer and political activist Jean Hay Bright is now semi-retired, running an organic farm in Dixmont Maine with her husband David Bright. Her two political books are "Proud to be a Card-Carrying, Flag-Waving, Patriotic American Liberal (1996), (more...)
 

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