An analysis of Hillary Clinton's vote totals and delegate counts to date do not bode well for her in November if she is the Democratic Party nominee. And she knows it.
That's why Bernie Sanders' surprising (to them) win in Michigan has the Clinton camp worried. It points to a trend that the Clinton camp does not want anyone to notice.
At this point in time (March 11), Bernie Sanders has won eight states outright to Hillary Clinton's nine. They have basically tied in four others:
Iowa caucus, Clinton by roughly 355 votes.
Nevada caucus, Clinton by roughly 8,000 votes.
Massachusetts, Clinton by 17,064 votes out of 1.2 million cast, 1.4% difference.
Michigan, Sanders by 19,437 out of 1.2 million cast, 1.64% difference.
(Hillary also won American Samoa, where she got 162 out of the 237 total votes tabulated.)
Hillary Clinton has seen her largest delegate gains to date in the Deep South (South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas). She touts her support from the Black community in those states as a sign of her "electability."
The problem is that Hillary Clinton knows that her path to the White House does not include winning any of those Deep South states in November. These eight states, all of them, will go Red (Republican) in November, regardless of which Democrat and which Republican are on the ballot.
While the Democrats in those states may support her, the demographics show the Republican vote will overwhelm any candidate the Democrats put forward. Check the record: All those enthusiastic black voters in those eight states could not pull out a single win for Barack Obama in either of his races in 2008 or 2012.
Fact: No Electoral College votes out of the Deep South will be cast for a Democrat in November.
So, how does that fact change the analysis of the race going forward?
Dramatically, as it turns out.
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