2004: 116.7 million votes recorded on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes.
2008: 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5% He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Obama had an identical 58.0% in the True Vote Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.
Late Vote Questions
Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive on the part of the perennial vote thieves to continue switching late votes?
Could it be that the late votes are on paper ballots (provisionals, absentees), not DREs?
Could it be that the bulk of late votes are coming in from Democratic strongholds? That is true, but Obama has a 10.5% margin when the late vote shares are weighted by total state votes, which tends to refute that argument.
The consistent Democratic late vote discrepancies from the Election Day shares are not proof of fraud. But there is no reason why the phenomenon is ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of late vote demographics we cannot make a definitive judgment as to whether they are representative of the total electorate. But there are a number of reasons why Obama would be expected to do better in the late vote. The only question is: how much better?
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