Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

State and National Exit Polls

 

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. The exit poll naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claim that a) late poll "respondents" misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.

 

But all we have is the 2012 National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. It shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.

 

The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding True Vote adjustments show that the Democrats had a 39-32% Party-ID advantage. In 2004, the Final NEP 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.

 

Similarly, Bush's 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. The bogus 53% National Exit Poll approval had the effect of inflating Bush's total share to match the recorded vote.

 

In 2012, about 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents. But the most important crosstab was missing: Who did you vote for in 2008?  Maybe it's because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections. That's why the True Vote Model always determines a feasible mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast - and the bogus adjusted Final Exit Poll that is forced to match the recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote - which reflects True Voter Intent.

 

As in every presidential election since 1988, the Democrat Obama did much better than the recorded vote. If the Late Votes are representative of the total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud. Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

 

2000: 102.6 million votes recorded on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.

Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

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