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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Richard Charnin

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Nov. 26, 2012

Just like in 2000, 2004, and 2008, the Democrat Obama did much better in the 2012 Late Vote than he did on Election Day. But why should 2012 have been any different? 

Obama had to overcome the 4-5% fraud factor. In every election, the Late Vote has closely matched the True Vote Model and unadjusted exit polls. This analysis shows that Obama must have done much better than his 50.8-47.5% margin of 126.87 million votes, of which 9.4 million were recorded after Election Day.

We do not have the 2012 state and national unadjusted polls. In fact just 31 states were exit polled. All we have are the adjusted polls that are always forced to match the recorded vote.

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The usual suspects will attempt to thrash this analysis and call it another "conspiracy theory". But they cannot refute that it confirms the conclusion that systemic election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic unadjusted exit poll (52-42%) and True Vote (53-41%) to the recorded 48-46% margin.

Pundits and naysayers are quick to accept the recorded result as gospel as they do in every election. They will say that Obama won by a solid 4 million vote margin. But once again, a true Democratic landslide was denied.

Based on the historical record, late votes recorded after Election Day closely matched the unadjusted state exit polls. But exit poll naysayers cannot use the bogus faith-based canard that exit poll respondents misrepresented how they voted or that the discrepancy was the result of a differential exit poll response in which Democrats were more anxious to be interviewed than shy, grumpy Republicans.

On the contrary, this analysis is based on recorded votes which the naysayers always claim correctly portray the electorate since there is no such thing as election fraud. They will have to find another way to refute the late vote anomaly.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Pollsters and pundits and academics never do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Is it because they have never considered this powerful analytical modeling tool? Or is it because they know it would produce results that they would rather not talk about?

In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.

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Base case assumptions:

1. Obama had a 58% True Share in 2008, equal to his state exit poll aggregate share (82,388 respondents) and True Vote Model.

Note: he led by 61-37% in the National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

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I have Master's degrees in Applied Mathematics and Operations Research and began my career as a Numerical Control Manufacturing Engineeer for a major Defense/Aerospace manufacturer. I was employed in the Corporate Finance Division of several major (more...)

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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes