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The Caspian Sea: Historical and Strategic Significance

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Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D.
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Shaw, M. N. (2021). International Law (9th ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Tanaka, Y. (2019). The International Law of the Sea (3rd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Treaty of Commerce and Navigation Between Iran and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (1940).

Treaty of Friendship Between Persia and the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. (1921).

United Nations. (1945). Charter of the United Nations.

United Nations. (1978). Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect of Treaties.

United Nations. (1982). United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Montego Bay, Jamaica.

Disclosure

This article represents the author's independent analysis based upon publicly available treaties, historical sources, scholarly publications, government documents, and contemporary reporting. The appendix reproduces an independent legal opinion by Dr. Nayereh Ansari with her express permission. The legal analysis contained in the appendix reflects Dr. Ansari's own professional opinions and conclusions. The geopolitical analysis and interpretations presented in the main article are solely those of the author.

(Article changed on Aug 07, 2026 at 9:38 AM EDT)

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I was born and raised in Tehran, Iran, and came to the United States in 1976 to study psychology. Over time, America became my home, and I later became a U.S. citizen. My professional career has centered on clinical neuropsychology, particularly (more...)
 
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Scott Baker

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Currently possibly overriding all of these past regional Caspian Sea issues, is the current critical alliance between Russia and Iran. Iran may be willing to, again but more so, put their territorial rights/desires on hold in order to preserve their new wartime alliance between themselves and Russia. They sell drones to Russia and may even at some point sell them oil if Ukraine keeps blowing up their refining capacity and oil fields.

Russia is, for now, in no position to defend or expand its offshore oil platforms in the Caspian Sea either. Iran probably isn't either since one of its ships was recently attacked by Ukraine, proving they have the range, though Zelinskyy apologized later for the attack (this is still not fully resolved, says Iran).

War is the Mother of all negotiators, setting terms no country wanted previously.

Submitted on Saturday, Aug 8, 2026 at 3:29:16 AM

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Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D.

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I agree with your analysis. I would add one more factor that may help explain the timing. Iran's ruling establishment is not a single, unified political bloc. There are competing factions and networks with different views of Iran's strategic orientation, including those who favor a closer relationship with Russia and those who see China as the more important long-term partner.

Seen in that context, willingness to accommodate Russia on Caspian issues may serve two purposes at once: preserving an increasingly important wartime relationship with Moscow while strengthening the position of the pro-Russian camp inside Iran against those advocating a stronger orientation toward China.

There is also an important domestic dimension. This issue is deeply unpopular among many Iranians, who view concessions in the Caspian not simply as technical maritime negotiations but as the permanent surrender of Iranian territorial and sovereign rights to Russia and the other Caspian states. Once such arrangements are formally ratified and implemented, reversing them could become extraordinarily difficult. That perception gives the issue an emotional and historical significance far beyond oil fields, shipping routes, or offshore platforms.

So I think your final observation is particularly important: war changes not only negotiations between countries, but also the balance of power among competing factions within them. What might appear irrational when viewed solely in terms of Iran's long-term Caspian interests may make considerably more sense when viewed through the internal politics of Tehran and its competing strategic alignments with Russia and China.

Submitted on Saturday, Aug 8, 2026 at 4:42:14 AM

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