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Deconstructing the Ukraine War: The Players and Their Interests

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Natylie Baldwin
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The US and EU

If German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande's initiative with Minsk 2.0 in early February was any indication, Europe seemed to be finally asserting some independence on behalf of its own interests as Kiev's military and economy continued to disintegrate while Washington descended further into hubristic madness with threatened weapons deliveries.

With the town of Debaltseve, which bridges the rebel areas of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), now in the hands of the rebels and the ceasefire appearing to largely hold until recently, it is important to note that the Minsk 2.0 agreement (which did not define the final demarcation line) is not likely to resolve the crisis but did represent an important turning point in the political equation.

In addition to the fact that Merkel and Hollande approached Moscow for another round of diplomacy and not the other way around, there were significant political concessions made verbally by Merkel during the negotiations as reported in an in depth article in Der Spiegel and expounded upon by analyst and international law expert Alexander Mercouris:

It was almost certainly in the talks with Putin in Moscow, where the Ukrainians were not present, that the broad outline of what was formally decided in Minsk was actually agreed. Merkel then flew to Washington to brief Obama and obtain his consent. Poroshenko was then presented in Minsk with what had previously been agreed, leaving him scope only to quibble over the technical details in a way that it is in Merkel's interests to highlight"

Der Spiegel claims Merkel was able to extract one concession from Putin. Der Spiegel claims Putin agreed the forthcoming elections in the rebel regions will be limited to areas the rebel militia was to control in accordance with a ceasefire line agreed on 19th September 2014, and would not take place in territories the rebel militia has captured since the failure of the Ukrainian government's offensive in January.

If Der Spiegel is right about this then this must have been agreed verbally because there is nothing in the text of the agreements that came out of Minsk that refers to it. Der Spiegel probably is right, because the remainder of the article shows a great deal more was agreed verbally by Putin and Merkel than appears in writing".

Ukraine is obliged to pass a law before the end of March granting the rebel regions in the Donbass special status within Ukraine. Ukraine is obliged to enact a new Constitution before the end of the year. As I have previously said, this provides a time line for the settlement of the conflict that did not exist previously.

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Natylie Baldwin is the author of The View from Moscow: Understanding Russia and U.S.-Russia Relations, available at Amazon. Her writing has appeared in Consortium News, RT, OpEd News, The Globe Post, Antiwar.com, The New York Journal of Books, (more...)
 

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