In modern times it has been rare that one of the three powers "managed to expand to a 1.5 ratio." Before, only the Tang empire and the Mongol empire came close. The British Empire, Tsarist Russia and the USSR "invaded Afghanistan and entered Central Asia, but success, when it happened, was short-lived."
That paved the way to Wenmu's clincher: "The law of the aurea section [Latin for 'golden' section] as the base of strategic power in Eurasia helps us to understand the causes of alternate rise and decline of powers in the continent and to recognize the limits of expansion of Chinese power in Central Asia. To understand it is the premise of mature and successful diplomacy."
Although this cannot be seriously depicted as a roadmap for "Chinese aggression," Wenmu cannot help but direct another hit at Western geopolitical stalwart Mackinder: "With his genius imagination, Mackinder advanced the wrong theory of the 'geographic pivot' because he did not consider this law."
In a nutshell, China is key for the equilibrium of Eurasia. "In Europe, the fragmented zone originates in the center, in Asia, it is around China. So that presents China as the natural barycenter of Asia."
It's easy to imagine Wenmu's essay provoking ballistic responses from proponents of the US National Security Strategy which labels China, as well as Russia, as a dangerous "revisionist power."
Professional Sinophobes are even peddling the notion that a "failing China" might eventually "lash out" against the US. That's a misreading of what Rear Admiral Luo Yuan said last month in Shenzhen: "We now have Dong Feng-21D, Dong Feng-26 missiles. These are aircraft carrier killers. We attack and sink one of their aircraft carriers. Let them suffer 5,000 casualties. Attack and sink two carriers, casualties 10,000. Let's see if the US is afraid or not?"
This is a statement of fact, not a threat. The Pentagon knows all there is to know about "carrier killer" danger.
Beijing won't stop with carrier killers, the rebranded Western Pacific and reunification with Taiwan. It is planning the first artificial intelligence (AI) colony on earth a deep-sea base for unmanned submarine science and defense ops in the South China Sea.
The landing of the Chang'e 4 lunar probe on the far side of the moon could even be interpreted as the most extreme extension of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
These are all pieces in a massive puzzle bound to reinforce the grip of a new Sinocentric map of the world, already in use by the Chinese navy and published in 2013, not by accident the year when the New Silk Roads were announced in Astana and Jakarta.
Wenmu ends his essay stressing how "Chinese geopolitics must distance itself from the idea that 'one cannot open his mouth without mentioning Ancient Greece'." That's a reference to a famous Mao speech of May 1941, when the Chairman criticized certain Marxist-Leninists who privileged Western history of which Ancient Greece is the ultimate symbol over Chinese history.
Thucydides trap? What trap?
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).