Problem is, there may not be a presumptive nominee at that point, and it might turn out that the 156 delegates from Michigan -- or their exclusion -- might make the final determination of who the nominee will be.
That's when things will get very interesting.
So, I see the face-off in Michigan as a real test of the progressive voting block, basically Clinton vs. Kucinich.
DFA (Democracy for America) and PDA (Progressive Democrats of America) have both pegged three candidates, Kucinich, Edwards and Obama, as progressives. Kucinich won each of their internal polls, quite handily. In other states DFA and PDA have been saying vote for one of those three (at this point excluding only Clinton and Gravel). But, in Michigan, Kucinich stands alone.
Detroit has been hit hard by Bill Clinton's NAFTA, which Kucinich has vowed to get rid of. And more than a million people in Michigan need Kucinich’s national not-for-profit health care, something Clinton has no intention of providing.
Michigan, for those paying attention, also explains the Kucinich support for Obama in Iowa. Kucinich suggested to his supporters that, in those precincts in the Iowa caucuses where he did not meet the 15% “viability” threshold, they should consider Obama as a second round choice.
Now, in the spirit of reciprocity, I’m hoping that Obama will suggest to his Michigan supporters that they support Dennis at the polls, since they can't support him there. (With the 15% threshold for “viability” applied in Iowa at the precinct level, Kucinich knew he had little chance to make headway in Iowa. But Obama has absolutely no “viability” in Michigan, simply because he’s not on the ballot and write-ins will not be counted.)
Lacking word from Obama, I hope his Michigan supporters will figure out this reciprocity strategy themselves. As I understand it, Michigan has more Blacks than does South Carolina, the next primary coming right up.
Also, the three-candidate ballot situation in Michigan leaves Congressman John Conyers of Detroit, the co-author of the Conyers/Kucinich National Health Care Plan (HR 676), able to actively campaign with Dennis in Michigan with no conflicts of his own political interests.
One final note on Michigan. With such a tight race, it may be that no one candidate will have earned enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention in August. That will result in a brokered convention, something that the Democratic Party hasn’t seen in decades.
A candidate must have earned 125 delegates to have his/her name placed in nomination at the national convention in August. Michigan has 156 delegates. If Michigan progressives (all those anti-war, pro-peace, pro-national health care, pro-impeachment, pro-recount people) can get their act together tomorrow, it is possible for Kucinich to get a good number – or even all – the delegates he needs to actually get nominated at the convention.
See what I mean about things getting interesting?
Then, Tuesday night in Las Vegas, Nevada, just as the polls are closing in Michigan, the next Democratic debate begins. But unless NBC changes its mind, again, Kucinich will not be on the stage with Clinton, Edwards and Obama.
Last Wednesday, Kucinich met all their criteria and was invited to that debate. But 44 hours later, shortly after Kucinich announced he would be asking for a recount of the New Hampshire Democratic primary vote, NBC changed the rules and un-invited him to that debate. They said, inexplicably, that it was because Bill Richardson had dropped out of the race. As they say in this neck of the woods, what exactly does that have to do with the price of eggs?
So, did NBC un-invite Kucinich as punishment for starting a recount that might show the Come-Back Clinton did not in fact come back from her devastating third-place finish in Iowa? Did Clinton and/or Edwards succeed in their efforts to limit the debate, as they were caught conspiring to do months ago near an open microphone?
Did Tim Russert, who tried to marginalize Kucinich with a question about UFOs, pull the plug? Did GE, owners of NBC, and a major military contractor as well as part-owner of thousands of electric companies, not want Kucinich’s anti-war message heard? Or was it pay-back for his refusal, some 30 years ago, as the young mayor of Cleveland, to privatize the city’s municipal electric company?
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