Seen in this light, the premise that NATO is an exclusively defensive organization committed to the promise of collective self-defense, is baseless.
Second, while Article V (collective defense) protections only extend to actual NATO members which Ukraine is not, Article IV allows the umbrella of NATO protection to be extended to those non-NATO members whom the alliance views as an ally, a category Stoltenberg clearly placed Ukraine in.
Finally, Stoltenberg's anointing of Ukraine as a NATO ally came at the same time he announced the activation and deployment of NATO's 40,000-strong Response Force, some of which would be deployed to NATO's eastern flank abutting Ukraine. The activation of the Response Force is unprecedented in the history of NATO, a fact that underscores the seriousness to which a nation like Russia might attach to the action.
When seen in this light, Putin's comments last Thursday were measured, sane, and responsible.
What Happens if NATO Convoys or EU Jets Are Hit?
Since the Article IV consultations began, NATO members have begun to supply Ukraine with lethal military aid with the promise of more in the days and weeks to come. These shipments can only gain access to Ukraine through a ground route that requires transshipment through NATO members including Romania and Poland.
It goes without saying that any vehicle carrying lethal military equipment into a war zone is a legitimate target under international law - this would apply in full to any NATO-affiliated shipment or delivery done by a NATO member on their own volition.
What happens when Russia begins to attack NATO/EU/US/Allied arms deliveries as they arrive on Ukrainian soil? Will NATO, acting under Article IV, create a buffer zone in Ukraine using the never-before-mobilized Response Force? One naturally follows the other"
The scenario becomes even more dire if the EU acts on its pledge to provide Ukraine with aircraft and pilots to fight the Russians. How would these be deployed to Ukraine? What happens when Russia begins shooting down these aircraft as soon as they enter Ukrainian airspace? Does NATO now create a no-fly zone over western Ukraine?
What happens if a no-fly zone (which many officials in the West are promoting) is combined with the deployment of the Response Force to create a de facto NATO territory in western Ukraine? What if the Ukrainian government establishes itself in the city of Lvov, operating under the protection of this air and ground umbrella?
Russia's Nuclear Doctrine
In June 2020, Russia released a new document, titled "On Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence," that outlined the threats and circumstances that could lead to Russia's use of nuclear weapons.
While this document declared that Russia "considers nuclear weapons exclusively as a means of deterrence," it outlined several scenarios in which Russia would resort to the use of nuclear weapons if deterrence failed.
While the Russian nuclear policy document did not call for the preemptive use of nuclear weapons during conventional conflicts, it did declare that "in the event of a military conflict, this Policy provides for the prevention of an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies."
In short, Russia might threaten to use nuclear weapons to deter "aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy."
In defining Russia's national security concerns to both the U.S. and NATO last December, Putin was crystal clear about where he stood when it came to Ukrainian membership in NATO.
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