Bear in mind that current leadership wants to avoid a government shutdown and that avoiding it may now be more difficult. One school of thought claims it will be easier to avoid the shutdown, as members will be more cooperative in promoting an extension in this newly nebulous environment. But we are talking about Tea Party radicals, here, not logical, responsible adults. If it is now more difficult to stop the shutdown, what will that do to Boehner's legacy? Has he really accomplished his personal mission to save the Republican caucus?
Yes, it is true that Boehner's security blanket of Republican supporters has continued to shrink, and that he may have had to rely on some Democratic votes to remain the Speaker if it came to a vote. But that, in itself, may not have been enough to force him to step down. If he truly thought that a bit of Democratic support would fracture his party more than having it run by the hooligans, I feel sorry for John Boehner.
So, in the short term, whether the government is shut down or not, Congressional "leadership" is more than likely to get pretty ugly. That's the bad news. But what about thinking long term?
What John Boehner has announced will almost certainly lead to greater turmoil rather than less of it. What that means is that the country will be subjected to more inaction and less accomplishment--exactly the forces that will drive a deep and wide re-alignment of Congress in the 2016 election. It is already predicted that Democrats will make gains in perhaps both the House and Senate. Those gains will be increased by this move by John Boehner, as the country sees what an extended period of Tea Party leadership brings to the table. With over a year of this new leadership to analyze, the country can go to the polls with a clear vision of what the Tea Party has wrought. Democrats will win, and win big because of John Boehner's stepping down this early.
Does Boehner realize this? Yes, he is not a stupid guy. He knows exactly what he is doing. And in so doing, he may actually be saving his party. The Tea Party has been a negative influence on the Republican Party and on governance as a whole since it arrived, and he has had more than his share of trouble trying to lead a party "infected" with their presence. This may prove to be one of the more effective ways to purge the party of its dissonance and its trouble-makers.
Just as Governor Brownback's ALEC-style leadership has heaped trouble on Kansas, turning it into "Brownbackistan," Tea Party leadership will take down the conservative cause in Congress. In the end, that is good for the progressive movement, and if they can ever fully recover, perhaps for the Republican Party, as well.(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
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