My Uncle Harry was no expert on climate change, nor do I ever recall him talking about the subject. He passed away before Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth, alerted the world to an unfolding existential threat to life on this planet. So, how could he have influenced my thinking about climate change?
As a bookmaker who made his living off precise percentages, Harry wasn't a risk-taker himself. Gamblers, he often reminded me, were guaranteed losers. They might win occasionally, but eventually, especially after wins that boosted their confidence, they'd bet recklessly and lose it all. But Harry made his living by ensuring the odds were always in his favor, not by taking chances. Even if a surprisingly large bet seemed like a sure loser, he'd lay it off with Las Vegas casinos.
How does this relate to climate change and climate deniers? Well, it's all about probabilities and gambling.
A consensus of scientists cites impressive data confirming a crisis posed by climate change. They call for all hands on deck for a war on climate change. The dangerous increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, along with the rise in temperatures each year throughout the globe, they warn, is approaching points of no return, with unknown, but potentially horrific consequences.
Climate change deniers-- our reckless gamblers in this analogy-- aren't worried. They call climate change a hoax. Among the many myths embraced by climate change deniers is the belief that weather is cyclical and that our planet is about to enter an ice age (NASA dismisses this speculation), which will soon start to lower average temperatures around the world. That's why, in rejecting the war on climate change, deniers defiantly support the "drill baby drill" mentality and the orgy of deregulation in the U.S. for unrestrained production of all forms of atmosphere-poisoning fossil fuels.
On the other side of the betting action, climate advocates have issued a 'red alert' as global warming records get smashed every year. They propose massive investments to fight climate change before catastrophic events-- the "climate hell" that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterrez warns is fast approaching.
In science, there are no absolute facts. Similarly, there are no sure bets in gambling. That's why either side in the climate debate has some probability of getting it right.
We must look at the potential consequences to decide which side to bet. If the deniers are correct-- clearly the longshot wager-- then the world will have overspent on providing a cleaner planet now and well into the future. However, if the deniers are wrong and climate change proves real, it could mean unimaginable catastrophes, even the end of humanity itself.
I have a feeling that a huge bet on the climate hoax being real is one bet that even ultra-cautious Harry wouldn't lay off in Las Vegas.
(Article changed on May 13, 2025 at 6:29 PM EDT)
(Article changed on May 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM EDT)
