1) Decoupling from Venezuelan oil/economic leverage (i.e. growing economic/political hostage status), and
2) Putting an immediate and significant, at least in the short term (which will likely have long term impact/benefit) dent/disruption in the Venezuelan government's major funding source. This helps thwart its aggressive near term move towards financing/institutionalizing social reforms. Too, countering its grander intent to formally displace Democracy with Socialism inside Venezuela, and then export elsewhere throughout Latin America, in what Chavez referred to during his January 2007 inauguration day as "21st Century Socialism".
In addition to his "socialism appeal" directional movement with the masses inside Venezuela, one can see Chavez seeking grander personal status as the great protector, guardian and "liberator" role outside the country, whether its standing side by side on the world stage with Iranian President Ahmadinejad spewing wildly hostile, ridiculous and purely venomous anti-U.S. rhetoric, or more regionally, trying to save 50 or so hostages held by the leftist FARQ in Columbia. On that note, President Uribe of Columbia has astutely foreseen the mass public play and glorification throughout Latin America and the world Chavez might receive with a FARQ situation success. To prevent that, he has terminated Chavez' involvement, leaving it to Columbia security forces to resolve the crisis.
The political trend in Venezuela continues hard left and ever more unstable from a U.S. perspective, and why Venezuela oil supply should be promptly replaced with a (relatively) more stable, friendlier supplier.
As noted earlier, Chavez is embarking on a major move towards socialism or perhaps something even more extreme, spearheaded by the Dec. 2, 2007 Referendum (today) on sweeping Constitutional Reforms.
On Nov. 2, 2007, the Venezuelan Congress passed the sweeping reforms of the Chavez Plan including the removal of Presidential Term Limits, clearing the way for today's Referendum. A Nov. 2, 2007 Reuters report noted however the Polls show many Venezuelans reject the moves to centralize presidential power, but welcome sweeteners the socialist leader has included.
Setting the stage for that assessment, it would be remiss to not highlight some important if not striking parallels between Chavez and another Venezuelan history maker, Simon Bolivar (1783-1830). In fact, the similarities are so remarkably close, that one can argue Chavez' entire political gameplan is modeled after Bolivar's and designed to achieve the same if not greater glory. Too, understanding Bolivar, might then help predict Chavez' next moves.
Bolivar was revered as "El Libertador" (the Liberator of Spanish South America). While Bolivar fought the Spanish, Chavez seeks the same adoration with his twisted, ridiculous, and completely irrational bout with the U.S.. Too, it was Bolivar who established the Second Republic. Chavez named his political party the Fifth Republic Movement. Bolivar sought control of South America from Venezuela to Bolivia. Chavez is seeking even broader influence and/or recognition than that throughout Latin America and beyond.
On government structure, Bolivar was anti-federal, favoring a tightly controlled central government. Wikipedia notes "Bolívar wanted to implement in a more centralist model of government in "Gran Columbia" (the geographic region now occupied by Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama), including some or all of the elements of the Bolivian constitution he had (previously) written, which included a lifetime presidency....This move was considered controversial and was one of the reasons why the deliberations met with strong opposition......After the failure of the convention due to grave political differences, Bolívar proclaimed himself dictator on August 27, 1828 through the "Organic Decree of Dictatorship".
These themes are all replicated in today's Chavez Referendum, part and parcel to what might be referred to as his "Grand Bolivarian Revolution".
With his penchant for glorification, as the case too for Bolivar, he likely too seeks a plaza and avenue in every city and town in Venezuela and elsewhere named for him, and probably alongside each other. It would not be surprising at some point to see Plaza Bolivar in downtown Caracas renamed Plaza Chavez y Bolivar. As for the currency, which is denominated in bolivars, well.........I wouldn't be surprised either.
There's an old adage which states "those that don't learn from history are destined to repeat it". In Chavez' case, the saying might go "those that learn from history seek to repeat it".
A Nov. 17, 2007 New York Times article characterizes the Chavez Referendum effort as being "Spreading the Wealth And Centering Power". This Analyst would even better characterize it for what it is - "Spreading the Wealth To Center Power".
As this discussion plays out below, keep in mind the parallels to the Bolivar themes of liberation (Chavez socialism), centralized government and President for Life.
As for the Chavez Plan itself and particularly the sour parts of the plan, as in the sweeping Constitution reform, these are offset and/or neutralized with these and other noted sweeteners for the mass populace, to entice majority voting support of the Plan. The sweeteners in the form of very liberal and generous social welfare reforms for the masses, all funded with oil revenues.
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