Among many key features of the Chavez Plan, particularly the Constitutional reform noted above, when the skin is peeled away, its core centerpiece and single objective, is the scheme to abolish Presidential term limits. In other words, today's Referendum on this matter is really a decision thrust upon the Venezuelan people to decide on one of two paths - Chavez for Life (and Socialism), or to rebuff him and pursue (note: pure democracy does not now today exist in Venezuela) a course toward true Democracy.
There is no line item veto on the ballot. It is a pure Referendum. A vote for social welfare is a vote for lifting Presidential term limitations. The New York Times article quotes a source as saying this is tantamount to a populist coup by Chavez.
The target voter for the Chavez Plan is the poor, and they represent the vast majority of Venezuelans. Therefore, the Chavez "get the vote out" machine is key and not to be underestimated. Unlike the U.S. where voters have an option to vote or not, the Venezuelan poor may be given no such choice in this Referendum. Pressures to vote and/or related repercussions for not voting may simply be to much to just "say no and don't go (to vote)".
If that's true, a heavy turnout of the poor can be expected. While the polls suggest a close vote, it's still election day and anything can happen. In the end, final results are all that matter.
As for the opposition, it comprises the affluent, traditional opposition parties, the Roman Catholic Church, rights groups and the defectors who say the reforms are authoritarian. Not unlike the Tiananmen Square situation of 1989, it is gaining strength behind student activists who demand the country pursue and embrace democratic principles. Whether it has the substance in numbers at the voting booth to defeat the Referendum remains uncertain. Not likely "if" the poor get out to vote in the numbers that Chavez craves. Yes, if they don't.
Nonetheless, Chavez seeks to legitimize an old style, strong arm, pure power grab with a new approach. Tim Padgett in his Nov. 29, 2007 Time.com article notes "Critics say he may be morphing into a "democratator" - a democratically elected dictator...... Elections and plebiscites are a sort of a moral Teflon for Chávez against charges from enemies like the U.S. that he's another Latin despot."
Adding to the President for Life and Socialism noise emanating from Venezuela, the recent "going nuclear" rhetoric from Chavez only heightens the concerns. Whether he's bluffing or not, it still is unstable and disturbing talk from a major world leader. But then again, his newest best friend President Amahdinejad of Iran has a flare for the dramatic too. He certainly knows how to fan the flames on that issue in his own way, and Chavez is clearly stealing a chapter from his book. One thing is for sure, he is certainly not shy around a camera and knows wild and outrageous statements get him the spotlight.
Perhaps, an international "Referendum" to make filming Chavez illegal might catch his attention.
Interestingly too, the "timing" of the Chavez quid pro quo "Socialism For You, President for Life For Me" Plan, is very suspect considering his current term continues til 2013. So why then the urgency to do it now? Perhaps "this" Referendum is not specifically for him but rather a test bed for someone else in a similar but much more time restricted, term ending predicament.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no bones about wanting to continue leading the country past his coming term limit expiration in March 2008, all part of his longer term but already behind the scenes occurring phenomena to bring the former pieces back together, in what this Analyst will coin, Putin's "Soviet Re-Union Plan". For example, the growing pressures on the Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are feeling in this regard. And this time it won't be via brute, overwhelming military force that seeks to secure them under a Soviet Union II umbrella.
He has struggled with how to "legitimately" change and/or circumvent Constitutional term limit restrictions to do so. So perhaps in his ultimate quest to be the next Castro-like leader of Latin America (with Bolivarian-like populace adoration), which would certainly require superpower support, Chavez must pay a toll so to speak for Putin's help. That vis-a-vis the Referendum in orchestrating something not out of immediate need for himself but rather for the perpetuation of the Putin regime in the form of a collusionary strawman Referendum on Constitution term limit reform. If it is successful, Putin can leverage the precedent to his own benefit in Russia. The tactic can now be observed firsthand by watching the Chavez plan unfold, with Chavez taking the flak and clearing the way for Putin to follow with an even grander and from a U.S. national security perspective, more troubling scheme of his own. If Chavez fails, there are certainly lessons to be learned, which will help Putin (and Chavez) too.
Putin, clever and cautious and playing redundancy (i.e. if Chavez Referendum fails), has another iron in the fire here too. His approach is to secure a landslide victory for his United Russia Party in the Russian parliamentary elections, coincidentally today too. That perceived mandate or assumed plebiscite authority to then be the political inertia to seek a new and even loftier title which is beginning to rapidly catch on with the political elite. As noted in the November 18, 2007 Radio Free Europe article, that new supreme title is "National Leader" (Analyst question - Might this be a 21st century rebranding of the term Dictator?), portrayed as being bigger than President or Prime Minister. Already, he's literally promoting himself as bigger than life in Soviet era style billboard pictures of himself in major cities like Moscow.
What if Chavez loses "THIS" Referendum?
If history as outlined above is an indicator, and if in fact Chavez is following Bolivar's lead, one can argue he intends to remain President indefinitely whether achieving that through "legitimate?" Constitutional reform with another Referendum(s) or as last resort, follow again in Bolivar's precedent noted above, Dictatorship.
Remember, he still would have six years left in his term, meaning 5 more potential Referendums to get it right, each time learning (lessons learned) from the last. Odds are given his sheer determination to win, at some point he will get it right (from his perspective).
And if he fails 6 times by Referendum, odds are too that he won't fail at his first try at Dictator in 2013.
