The probability of establishing a military dictatorship in Ukraine has increased significantly. The main reason for this is that a military dictatorship suits all three sides of the war in Ukraine: the EU, Russia and the US. But to understand this, we need to know the essence of the military actions in Ukraine.
The essence of the war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is first and foremost a war of ideological strategies rather than military strategies. And this war began long before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The capitalist camp was able to defeat the socialist camp using better propaganda. The capitalists managed to convince the citizens of socialist countries that capitalism was better than socialism. In fact, this was not the case. Capitalism is not better than socialism. Capitalism is not worse than socialism. Capitalism is simply different from socialism. Comparing socialism and capitalism is incorrect. Since these are categories that cannot be compared. It is similar to comparing a truck and a car, or skis and skates.
Despite the fallacy of this approach, capitalist and socialist politicians used it. The competition between the capitalist and socialist camps based on comparison was obviously divorced from reality and misled people. But having won once, the capitalists decided to continue doing so. Politicians from Western countries thought that by doing so they could build on their success. After the collapse of the USSR and the socialist camp in 1889-1991,(1) Western countries continued the ideological war using the same principle but improving the means. As a result, these politicians managed to achieve several victories, the expansion of NATO to the east,(2) the victory of color revolutions in some CIS countries,(3) etc. The apogee of the post-Soviet victories of the "West" was Ukraine. There, Anglo-Saxon propagandists managed to deceive millions of voters by depriving them of life. But the madness into which they drove Ukrainian society became the final chord of the victorious melodies of the "West". And here's why.
What did Russia do in response as the legal successor of the USSR? Russian President Vladimir Putin did not repeat the mistake of the communist leaders. He did not support the ideological war with Western countries. Instead of perfecting propaganda, the Russian president decided to hit the weakest point of Western ideology. This weak point is the fallacy of ideological competition and the misleading of voters for the sake of it. Vladimir Putin decided to break the most important weapon of Western countries - ideological attractiveness. Knowing that this attractiveness is based on misleading people, Putin decided to act as follows.
Russia's actions in Ukraine
1. The first stage 2013-2021
The Russian leadership creates the appearance of losing control over Ukraine's human capital. During this period, the Russian leadership allowed the Europeans to temporarily gain control over a significant part of the Ukrainian population.(4) This was done with the sole purpose of giving the Ukrainians the opportunity to make a mistake in the European choice, which is based on misleading voters.
2. The second stage 2022
The Russian leadership deliberately organizes an ineffective military invasion of Ukraine.(5) The goal of an ineffective invasion is the maximum number of victims among Russian soldiers. This allows eliminating the sympathies of Russian citizens for the EU and Ukraine. And these sympathies were the main instrument of influence of Europeans on Russians. It is impossible to imagine that after the start of the war in Ukraine, pro-Western rallies would take place in Russia as before. (6)
3. The third stage of 2023-2024
After the destruction of European influence in Russia, Vladimir Putin began to destroy European influence in Ukraine. Using special military tactics, the Russian president made the ratio of Ukrainian losses in the rear and in the combat zone 1 to 17. That is, Ukrainians fighting with Russia(7) die 17 times more often than Ukrainians(8) who are not fighting with Russia. Also, the Russian politician is deliberately prolonging the war. The purpose of continuing the hostilities is not to seize territories or inflict a military defeat on Ukraine. The purpose of prolonging the hostilities is to destroy the maximum number of Eurocollaborators among the Ukrainian population. Every day of the war draws new Eurocollaborators from Ukrainian society into the combat zone. There, Eurocollaborators die. There are fewer and fewer Eurocollaborators among Ukrainians. The political power of Eurocollaborators is weakening. The Eurocollaborators no longer control the human capital of Ukraine because they cannot provide a sufficient number of recruits for the war with Russia.(9) This means the defeat of the Eurocollaborators in Ukraine.
4 Stage 4 2025-2026 - forecast
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking an ideological victory, not a military victory. Because this will knock Western politicians' main weapon - ideological attractiveness- out of their hands. Russia's military victory over Ukraine, on the contrary, will strengthen the ideological attractiveness of Western politicians.
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