Technology continues to do wonders for humanity.
However, there are times when it should be controlled. This spring, the Future of Life Institute, a non-profit organization that works to reduce the bad consequences of artificial intelligence, called for an indefinite moratorium on future development of artificial intelligence because it is evolving too quickly for human beings to understand or control.
As our nuclear weapons systems become more and more computer- and AI-oriented, the risk of accidental nuclear war will increase. In fact, the Union of Concerned Scientists has documented several cases going back to the 1960s, when computer errors nearly set off full-scale nuclear war.
Since 2001, our arms control deals have withered away. Along with our having scrapped every arms control treaty except for what little is left of START, and a nuclear weapons modernization program extending into the 2040s, plans are in the works for nuclear weapons usable into the 2090s. Thom Shanker, director of George Washington University's Project for Media and National Security, observed that continued development of hypersonic missiles, which move too quickly for human reflexes to respond, increases the danger.
However, we still have our disarmament obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the supreme law of the land clause of the U.S. Constitution, but there's a realistic way and a non-realistic way to pursue those obligations. Right now, the international system is caught in a spheres of influence situation with China and Russia in an alliance dominating a sphere around its borders, and the United States and its allies dominating a sphere around its borders and into Europe (North Atlantic Treaty Alliance) Spheres of influence is an awful place to be because each great power will balance each other militarily, and this will commit our country to high military budgets when our country faces great domestic problems.
With the world being divided into spheres, there doesn't seem a way to pool our power for the good of the international community, at least not in a way that would make Hugo Grotius proud. However, let's hope the international community can do as much it can with the tools it possesses. There's even a positive development in the news. In an overture designed to reverse years of stalled diplomacy, the Biden Administration sought last week to restart nuclear arms-control negotiations with Russia and China without preconditions, an example of a realistic way to move in the right direction. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said he wants the U.S. to establish a framework for nuclear arms reduction before the last remaining arms-control treaty between the U.S. and Russia expires. This could act as a cooling agent for the tensions mentioned in this story. Since President Joe Biden took office, both Russia and China have opted to wield their arsenals to coerce neighbors and deter adversaries.
This move comes with recent history - spats with China and opposing Russia via proxy in the Ukraine war. Sullivan correctly stressed the importance of conversation as tensions rise. What will the recent turn to diplomacy mean? We don't know, but hopefully it means an easing of tensions between our country and its adversaries. Maybe we can cooperate on just a few things in the spheres of influence world we live in. If our current world ever changes, maybe we can cooperate in a world defined by law.
