The Obama campaign has been touting some polls that show he does better against McCain, by a few points.
The Clinton campaign has been bragging that Hillary won key democratic states-- California, New York, Massachusetts.
Obama Does Better in Poll Matchups with McCain
First, the matchup with McCain. Pollsters build a poll by asking the accepted percentage of democrats, Republicans and independents. That usually works out to something like 40% Democrats, 40% Republicans and 20% independents. The problem is, voters are not coming out in those proportions. Look at Virginia, a state that went for Bush in 2004. Twice as many voters showed up in the Democratic as on the Republican side.
The new voter math suggests that the usual proportions pollsters use are not really representative of the current reality. If the polls are showing Hillary or Obama even or a point or three ahead, then in reality, they are probably ten points ahead.
I interpret this to mean that either Obama or Hillary will have an easy time crushing McCain. Obama does NOT have the significant advantage over Hillary that the pollsters seem to suggest. If you're not sure who you're voting for, and this polling issue has been influencing you, go with the candidate you think best reflects your personal position on issues, values, stands.
Hillary Won the Key Democratic States
So what? These are the easy states that Democrats can depend upon. It means almost nothing to claim that Hillary won these states. The real question is, who won the red and purple states. That's a better indicator of who has a better shot at winning states Bush won in 2000 and 2004. Hillary won Florida, sort of and she squeaked by in New Mexico. But Obama won Idaho, Virginia, Georgia, and a lot of other red and purple states.
Experience and Achievement
Hillary claims she has more experience-- 35 years worth. That assumes that her eight years in the Whitehouse counts. I think it does. She did not participate in the day to day cabinet meetings (would Bill, in a Hillary Whitehouse?) but she certainly routinely dealt with world leaders, was in on discussions on how to deal with problems and opportunities.
Obama was a state legislator who got a lot done in that role. Here's an article, (Clinton & Obama Senate Accomplishments, Whose Got the Beef? ) that lists some of the accomplishments. It's biased towards Obama, so read the comments, which balance it out. I mention it because the mainstream media seem to be assuming that it is Hillary with the most achievements and experience.
I think that in the coming debates, a number of questions about experience should be asked.
Of course, Obama's been replying, asking if people want the kind of experience that resulted in misguided votes on war.
comments on these observations are very welcome.