Zogby polls in the past week show steadily declining support for Hillary among women. Blacks, and under 70s. moving to Obama driving the change.
Zogby phone polls in Indiana and North Carolina suggest that women are deserting Hillary.
In the gender war, Obama seems to have made serious progress, holding the edge on males and pulling ahead, though statistically insignificantly, with females. Frankly, it's hard to believe that Hillary has lost the edge in the female vote. But checking the progression over the past few days seems to bear this out.
|May 6 Zogby Poll||Gender|
|PA 4/22 Zogby Poll||Gender|
|May 4 Indiana||Gender||US Direction|
|May 2 Indiana||Gender||US Direction|
Are women abandoning Hillary? The series of polls seems to suggest a gradual decline.
The results for North Carolina support the Indiana findings, for gender AND for ideology.
With such startling numbers, I contacted Zogby and they explained that for North Carolina, the strong black vote is skewing the female vote. For Indiana, the Zogby organization spokesman, explained, "The defection of women from Hillary appears to be among her base of older women in Indiana "" particularly those age 55-64, where she has lost significant ground."
Next we look at ideology, and it's clear that Obama has much stronger support among progressives, less strong among liberals and Hillary is the strongest among conservatives. Why is that not a surprise?
|May 6 Indiana||Ideology|
Of course, Zogby could be wrong. His methodology for selecting his polling sample may be off, which would explain the hard to believe female support for Obama. We'll see in 11 or 12 hours.