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Zogby Polling :Female Voters Deserting Hillary

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Rob Kall     Permalink    (# of views)   17 comments

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Zogby polls in the past week show steadily declining support for Hillary among women. Blacks, and under 70s. moving to Obama driving the change.

Zogby phone polls in Indiana and North Carolina suggest that women are deserting Hillary.

[[hilbris]]

In the gender war, Obama seems to have made serious progress, holding the edge on males and pulling ahead, though statistically insignificantly, with females. Frankly, it's hard to believe that Hillary has lost the edge in the female vote. But checking the progression over the past few days seems to bear this out.

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May 6 Zogby Poll Gender
TotalMaleFemale
%%%
Hillary Clinton42.841.543.8
Barack Obama45.346.744.3
Someone else4.86.43.5
NS7.05.48.4
Total100.0100.0100.0
First, let's compare today's poll to the April 22 poll results for Pennsylvania: From April 22 to May 5 there's a huge change--- from a 13.5 lead for hillary to a .5 lead for Obama. That's a 14% drop. It's hard to buy, so let's check recent polls.
PA 4/22 Zogby Poll Gender
TotalMaleFemale
%%%
Hillary Clinton 48.2 42.3 53.1
Barack Obama 42.1 45.0 39.6
Someone else 3.6 5.3 2.2
NS 6.1 7.4 5.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
Just two days earlier, on May 4, Hillary holds a 4.6 advantage among women
May 4 Indiana GenderUS Direction
TotalMaleFemaleRightWrongNS
%%%%%%
Hillary Clinton41.338.143.941.241.537.4
Barack Obama42.847.039.333.244.926.0
Someone else7.98.17.720.65.619.7
NS8.06.89.15.08.016.9
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
And two days earlier, on May 2, Hillary had even stronger support from women-- a 7.6 advantage..
May 2 Indiana GenderUS Direction
TotalMaleFemaleRightWrongNS
%%%%%%
Hillary Clinton41.737.145.440.141.547.5
Barack Obama42.347.737.829.344.724.6
Someone else7.48.76.220.95.89.2
NS8.76.410.69.68.018.7
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

Are women abandoning Hillary? The series of polls seems to suggest a gradual decline.

The results for North Carolina support the Indiana findings, for gender AND for ideology.

5000. All Votes Democratic North Carolina
GenderAgeGroupIdeology
TotalMaleFemale18-29 ProgLibModConsVConsLibert
%%%% %%%%%%
Hillary Clinton37.133.739.923.9 18.838.441.041.318.621.7
Barack Obama51.056.046.962.2 77.851.848.041.155.878.3
Someone else3.63.53.65.0 2.51.42.48.215.2
NS8.36.99.68.9 .98.48.59.410.3
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0 100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
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With such startling numbers, I contacted Zogby and they explained that for North Carolina, the strong black vote is skewing the female vote. For Indiana, the Zogby organization spokesman, explained, "The defection of women from Hillary appears to be among her base of older women in Indiana "" particularly those age 55-64, where she has lost significant ground."

Next we look at ideology, and it's clear that Obama has much stronger support among progressives, less strong among liberals and Hillary is the strongest among conservatives. Why is that not a surprise?

May 6 Indiana Ideology
TotalProgLibModConsVConsLibert
%%%%%%%
Hillary Clinton42.930.742.639.453.730.830.5
Barack Obama45.063.349.948.432.926.536.3
Someone else5.0 3.23.06.742.76.8
NS7.05.94.39.26.7 26.4
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Now let's look at the April 22 PA poll. Obama is not looking nearly as good here, losing the liberals and moderates. Maybe Hillary's attacks on Moveon.org and her glowing support from William Cristol, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity and Joe Scarborough are sinking in.
Ideology
TotalProgLibModConsVConsLibert
%%%%%%%
Hillary Clinton 48.7 30.0 49.7 52.9 55.2 76.0 32.4
Barack Obama 42.2 58.5 43.3 38.1 34.5 67.6
Someone else 3.6 2.1 1.9 4.9 4.7 12.8
NS 5.5 9.4 5.2 4.2 5.6 11.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Of course, Zogby could be wrong. His methodology for selecting his polling sample may be off, which would explain the hard to believe female support for Obama. We'll see in 11 or 12 hours.

 

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Rob Kall is an award winning journalist, inventor, software architect, connector and visionary. His work and his writing have been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, ABC, the HuffingtonPost, Success, Discover and other media. He's given talks and workshops to Fortune 500 execs and national medical and psychological organizations, and pioneered first-of-their-kind conferences in Positive Psychology, Brain Science and Story. He hosts some of the world's smartest, most interesting and powerful people on his Bottom Up Radio Show, and founded and publishes one of the top Google- ranked progressive news and opinion sites, OpEdNews.com

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Rob Kall has spent his adult life as an awakener and empowerer-- first in the field of biofeedback, inventing products, developing software and a music recording label, MuPsych, within the company he founded in 1978-- Futurehealth, and founding, organizing and running 3 conferences: Winter Brain, on Neurofeedback and consciousness, Optimal Functioning and Positive Psychology (a pioneer in the field of Positive Psychology, first presenting workshops on it in 1985) and Storycon Summit Meeting on the Art Science and Application of Story-- each the first of their kind.  Then, when he found the process of raising people's consciousness and empowering them to take more control of their lives  one person at a time was too slow, he founded Opednews.com-- which has been the top search result on Google for the terms liberal news and progressive opinion for several years. Rob began his Bottom-up Radio show, broadcast on WNJC 1360 AM to Metro Philly, also available on iTunes, covering the transition of our culture, business and world from predominantly Top-down (hierarchical, centralized, authoritarian, patriarchal, big)  to bottom-up (egalitarian, local, interdependent, grassroots, archetypal feminine and small.) Recent long-term projects include a book, Bottom-up-- The Connection Revolution, debillionairizing the planet and the Psychopathy Defense and Optimization Project. 

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