Most Popular Choices
Share on Facebook 46 Printer Friendly Page More Sharing
OpEdNews Op Eds   

Why? Three Possible reasons Trump is threatening Turkey with Sanctions after Greenlighting Syria Invasion

By       (Page 1 of 2 pages)   1 comment
Message Juan Cole
Become a Fan
  (4 fans)

From Informed Comment


(Image by Video Screenshot)   Details   DMCA

Trump is slapping sanctions on Turkey for invading northern Syria after Trump told Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan that it would be all right for him to invade northern Syria.

It is really difficult to be an analyst of foreign affairs in the age of Trump, because we try to understand policy moves with regard to their logic. Much of what Trump does seems illogical.

Trump's loud clown circus has so dazzled and confused cable news that few are even reporting this about-face as a puzzle in need of explanation.

How to explain his sanctions on Erdogan for doing what Trump told him it would be OK to do? Offhand, I can think of three possible explanations:

1. Trump may just be mentally unbalanced and so does contradictory things because of his condition.

2. In this case, the sanctions may be a political cover. Trump is being pilloried by Republican stalwarts (though not mostly those still actually in office) for his abrupt retreat from Syria. What he did makes him look weak and threatens to damage his blustery brand.

Announcing sanctions on Turkey at least creates an image of strength and push-back. It also puts him on the same page with Sen. Lindsay Graham and other GOP Syria war hawks who have called for sanctions on Turkey.

Remember, Trump's "sanctions" may also be just tough talk. Trump on many occasions has slow-rolled sanctions legislated by Congress, as on Putin's Russia, or simply declined practically to implement them. As of now, aside from some tweets, there is no early prospect of Turkey being sanctioned in practical terms.

3. It could be a shadow-play orchestrated behind the scenes by Russian President Vladimir Putin. We suspect that Putin has some sort of hold over Trump. It so happens that Trump's green light to Turkey's Erdogan to invade has caused the Democratic Union Party in Kurdish Syria to fold and beseech the Russians and the Syrian government to come up to the northeast and take control of the border with Turkey.

Putin would see this development as a windfall, but the problem is that he would not want to deploy his air force against Turkish forces. Russia and Turkey in Syria are rivals and foes, but have attempted to work out the conflict via their proxies. Nor should I think the Syrian Arab Army of Bashar al-Assad wants to try to go toe to toe against the much bigger and massively better armed and trained Turkish army.

So the best way for Assad and Putin to assert themselves would be to promise to patrol the Syrian-Turkish border themselves so as to allay Turkish concerns about terrorists coming across from Syria into the Kurdish areas of southeast Turkey. I don't think such an offer will dissuade Erdogan from his social engineering project of ethnically cleansing Kurdish villages down to about 20 miles from his border and then planting fundamentalist Sunni Arab Syrians there, giving them the Kurdish homes and land so that they can spy on the Kurds and keep them from infiltrating over to Turkey.

I should underline that in the above paragraph I am explaining Turkey's point of view; I don't personally believe there is any evidence that the Democratic Union Party or its paramilitary, the People's Protection Units (YPG) have engaged in terrorism against Turkey. Whether they have given safe haven to persons from the Kurdistan Workers Party of Turkey, (the PKK), whom both Turkey and the US view as terrorists, I cannot say. But I do believe that Turkey's equation of the Democratic Union Party with the PKK is wrong-headed and unjustified.

So it is now useful to Putin to have the US put pressure on Turkey to get back out of Syria, and you could imagine him getting word to Trump to strong-arm Erdogan.

This last scenario would explain why Trump pulled this about face in sanctioning Turkey. He seems eager not to tangle with Erdogan, but has throughout his presidency been far more eager to do Putin's bidding.

Next Page  1  |  2

(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).

Rate It | View Ratings

Juan Cole Social Media Pages: Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in       Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in       Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in       Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Juan Cole is an American academic and commentator on the modern Middle East and South Asia.  He is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. Since 2002, he has written a weblog, Informed Comment (more...)
 

Go To Commenting
The views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
Writers Guidelines

 
Contact AuthorContact Author Contact EditorContact Editor Author PageView Authors' Articles
Support OpEdNews

OpEdNews depends upon can't survive without your help.

If you value this article and the work of OpEdNews, please either Donate or Purchase a premium membership.

STAY IN THE KNOW
If you've enjoyed this, sign up for our daily or weekly newsletter to get lots of great progressive content.
Daily Weekly     OpEd News Newsletter
Name
Email
   (Opens new browser window)
 

Most Popular Articles by this Author:     (View All Most Popular Articles by this Author)

Rupert Murdoch's Fox postpones Pirro, as his Sky Channel is Pulled from NZ Airwaves for airing Shooter's Video

Clouds of War: Russia sends Warships as Turkey kills 45 Syrian Troops and blackmails Europe with Migration

India Doubles Iran Oil Imports: Are Trump's Sanctions Cratering?

Who's Running John Bolton to Start a war with Iran? He worried even Mad Dog Mattis

Top 5 Mistakes GOP's Wohl Made in allegedly framing Mueller for Sex Charges

Trump hands Oil & Gas to Syria & Russia as he claims "We've taken control of the oil in the Middle East"

To View Comments or Join the Conversation:

Tell A Friend