From The Guardian
I think the Democratic nominee will win the White House on Tuesday. Here's how and why -- and what the president will do
You've been in or around politics for more than 50 years. How are you feeling about Tuesday's election?
I'm more frightened for my country than I've ever been. Another four years of Donald Trump would be devastating. Still, I suspect Biden will win.
But in 2016, the polls ...
Polling is better now, and Biden's lead is larger than Hillary Clinton's was.
What about the electoral college?
He is also leading in the so-called "swing" states that gave Trump an electoral college victory in 2016.
Will Trump contest the election?
Undoubtedly. He'll claim fraudulent mail-in ballots in any swing state Biden wins where the governor is a Republican - states such as Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Arizona. He'll ask those governors not to certify Biden electors until fraudulent ballots are weeded out.
What's his goal?
To deny Biden a majority of electors and throw the decision into the House of Representatives, where Republicans are likely to have a majority of state delegations.
Will it work?
No, because technically Biden only needs a majority of electors already appointed. Even if disputed ones are excluded, I expect he'll still get a majority.
What about late ballots?
Trump has demanded all ballots be counted by midnight election day. It's not up to him. It's up to individual state legislatures and state courts. Most will count ballots as long as they're postmarked no later than election day.
Will these issues end up in the supreme court?
Some may, but the justices know they have to appear impartial. Last week they turned down a request to extend the deadline for receiving mail-in ballots in Wisconsin but allowed extensions to remain in place in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
But the supreme court decided the 2000 election for George W Bush.
The last thing John Roberts, the chief justice, wants is another Bush v Gore. With six Republican appointees now on the court, he knows its legitimacy hangs in the balance.
Trump has called for 50,000 partisans to monitor polls while people vote, naming these recruits the "army for Trump." Do you expect violence or intimidation?
Not enough to affect the outcome.
Will Trump just fade into the sunset?
And what happens if your whole premise is wrong and Donald Trump wins a second term?
America and the rest of the world are seriously imperiled. I prefer not to think about it.
Robert Reich, former U.S. Secretary of Labor and Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, has a new film, "Inequality for All," to be released September 27. He blogs at www.robertreich.org.