Send a Tweet
Most Popular Choices
Share on Facebook 7 Share on Twitter 1 Printer Friendly Page More Sharing
OpEdNews Op Eds   

The Korean Matrix

By       (Page 1 of 2 pages) (View How Many People Read This)   1 comment
Author 73066
Message Pepe Escobar
Become a Fan
  (184 fans)

From Sputnik

Korea
Korea
(Image by pixabay.com)
  Details   DMCA

South Korea wants to talk to North Korea.

The Defense Ministry in Seoul proposed to talk at the border village of Panmunjom, while the Red Cross proposed separate talks to discuss family reunions.

So South Korean President Moon Jae-in has made up his mind -- after his inauguration on May 10 and Pyongyang's ICBM test on July 3.

Pyongyang may also be inclined to talk -- as it had already indicated. But there may be preconditions, as in the suspension of those provocative, annual US-South Korean military drills. The US will say no. Once again, it's all about Washington.

It's unclear whether US intelligence has 100% proof that Pyongyang, apart from the ICBM, is on the path to soon achieve other technological breaks, such as building a guidance system and a miniaturized, functional nuclear weapon capable of surviving both the missile launch and re-entry into the atmosphere.

Now for some crude, hard facts. Kim Jong-un very well knows that nuclear weapons are absolutely essential for the survival of the Kim dynasty. Beijing not only knows it -- but also calculates that Pyongyang does not exactly see it as a trustful ally. During the Korean War -- whose memory is pervasive all across the North -- Mao's key concern was to protect China's borders, not the safety of its neighbor.

The open secret though is that a nuclear North Korea may represent a perennial dissuasion against the US, much more than a threat, but not against China. So that frames the case, once again, as a Washington-Pyongyang drama.

Beijing's margin of maneuver against Pyongyang is rather limited -- something that President Trump as well as the US deep state still do not understand. And North Korea is not a Chinese national security priority -- unless the regime would collapse and there would be an uncontrollable influx of refugees.

The only thing that matters for the Chinese leadership is -- what else -- trade. And as far as China-South Korean trade is concerned, business is booming anyway.

Feverish speculation in the US about a "strike" against Pyongyang is idle. Anyone with minimum knowledge of the Korean Peninsula knows that the response would be Pyongyang virtually wiping Seoul off the map. Not to mention that US intel is clueless on where all the dispersed North Korean nuclear and missile development sites are.

A minimally competent US "attack" would requires a lot of infiltrated US Special Forces, as in boots on the ground, with no guarantee of success. In a nutshell; Washington, realistically, is incapable of eliminating North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

Enter the Trans-Korean Railway

So what to do? The only logical strategy would be to admit -- just as with India and Pakistan in the late 1990s -- that North Korea is a de facto nuclear power.

Pyongyang's strategy, after all, is actually a small marvel; you imprint the feeling you're a totally unpredictable actor, and you scare the living daylights out of everyone while preventing any attempt at destabilization. As much as wishful thinking prevails, that a US surgical strike would be able to paralyze the North Korean political/military/command/communication structure, US intel is clueless when it comes to predicting Pyongyang's actions.

Next Page  1  |  2

 

Valuable 3   Must Read 2   Well Said 2  
Rate It | View Ratings

Pepe Escobar Social Media Pages: Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in       Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in       Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in       Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia (more...)
 

Go To Commenting
The views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
Writers Guidelines
Contact AuthorContact Author Contact EditorContact Editor Author PageView Authors' Articles
Support OpEdNews

OpEdNews depends upon can't survive without your help.

If you value this article and the work of OpEdNews, please either Donate or Purchase a premium membership.

STAY IN THE KNOW
If you've enjoyed this, sign up for our daily or weekly newsletter to get lots of great progressive content.
Daily Weekly     OpEdNews Newsletter
Name
Email
   (Opens new browser window)
 

Most Popular Articles by this Author:     (View All Most Popular Articles by this Author)

You Want War? Russia is Ready for War

Why Putin is driving Washington nuts

Why Qatar wants to invade Syria

All aboard the New Silk Road(s)

It was Putin's missile?

Where is Prince Bandar?

To View Comments or Join the Conversation: