There are vast implications for any Israeli aggression in Syria, which may not be tolerated by Russia. It may place the US under Trump's leadership in a precarious position, not necessarily by its own initiative, discretion, design...
Figure. Syrian "Civil War" : Military situation in November 2017. Red: Syrian Arab Republic, Green: Syrian opposition, Yellow: Rojava (SDF), Grey: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, White: Tahrir al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front). The dispute, described here, pertains to the relatively short border between Israel and Syria (lower left). Source: Wikipedia.
____
Tel-Aviv, December 28 - following is the English translation of a short Hebrew Facebook post, "A Stern Warning", by Ran Edelist - a
reputable Israeli journalist, specializing in military-intelligence
matters. [1]
Figure. " A Stern Warning" - a short Facebook post on the evening of Thurdsday, December 28, 2017, by Ran Edelist, a reputable Israeli journalist, specializing in military-intelligence matters. Source: https://www.facebook.com/ran.edelist.3/posts/171558366928534
A Stern Warning
Right now, a dispute is
underway between IDF's leadership and the Prime Minister and his
Minister of Defense. [2] The dispute pertains to the nature of
response to the advancement of Syrian government forces, backed by
Russian air force and Hezbollah, towards the Israeli-Syrian-Jordanian
border point in the south of the Golan heights, the slopes of Mount
Hermon in the northern Golan heights, and the vicinity of
Al-Quneitra.
The advancement of Syrian government forces
is aimed at annihilating the rebels, who operate under Saudi/US
patronage with limited IDF support.
Netanyahu claims that the
situation amounts to Iranian penetration and threatens an Israeli
response. In parallel, he is making representations that there is
"strategic understanding" between Israel and the US
regarding such circumstances - of Iranian approach to the
Israeli-Syrian border. [3]
Ehud Barak spoke a week ago about the
potential of a patently illegal order, which IDF must disobey. [2] An
order to interfere in the war in Syria might be legal/democratic, [7]
but lacks any tactical or strategic logic, and would cost human lives
in vain. Therefore, it should be deemed patently illegal. [8]
We
are forewarned!
BACKGROUND
Edelist's
warning should be assessed on the background of extremely unusual
conditions in Israeli internal politics, where "winds of a
revolution" have been noticed by various high-level figures, and
top deep-state figures are openly involved in the growing massive
demonstrations against Netanyahu. [2]
In particular,
Edelist's warning should be assessed on the background of the
extremely unusual statement made by former Israeli PM/former IDF
Chief of Staff Ehud Barak last week, that circumstances were nearing,
where the IDF/Shin-Bet leadership might have to disobey Netanyahu and
stage a rebellion. The statement gained additional weight when it
was later disclosed that Barak had held a private meeting with
current IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot 24 hours earlier.
"Strategic
understanding" in this context is likely to be a reference to
some unknown, possibly also non-existent US-Israeli understanding
in conjunction with the November 10, 2017, Russian-US-Jordanian
Memorandum of Principles, which was announced by both the US and
Russia. [3] The Memorandum ignored Israel and its demands relative to
the outcome of the Syrian "civil war". In particular, it
allowed Iranian forces to gain access to areas that are as close as 5
km from the Israeli border.
Israel immediately expressed
its opposition to the Memorandum, and claimed to be at liberty to act
in Syria as it deemed fit. [4]
Additionally, it later became
clear that there was a wide difference between the US and Russia
relative to interpretation of the Memorandum: The US claimed that it
meant that Iranian forces would have to leave Syria. Russia claimed
that Iranian and Russian forces were invited by the sovereign
government of Syria, while US presence in Syria was patently illegal
and must come to an end. [5] In response, the US refused to withdraw
its forces from Syria and announced that they would stay there for
the foreseeable future. Putin made a short surprise visit to Syria
and announced withdrawal of Russian forces. However, Russian air and
naval bases in Syria are a permanent feature. [6]
In this
context, it should also be noted that Netanyahu has recently made the
full Israeli government delegate its authority to declare war to the
smaller "Security Cabinet". [7] The legality of such
decision is dubious.
It should also be noted that the
situation is almost a repeat of a 2010 confrontation between
Netanyahu and the security apparatus, relative to attacking Iran.
[8]
The entire situation should be also assessed on the
background of the pending (mid-January?) police recommendation to
indict Netanyahu in at least some of the corruption investigations
that engulf him. In such context, it has been clear for months that
there is concern that Netanyahu would try to divert public attention
by initiating a security crisis, or even a war. Various parties have
claimed that under the circumstance he has "no mandate" to
make such critical security decisions.
Obviously, there are vast
implications for any such aggression by Israel in Syria, which may
not be tolerated by Russia, and which may place the US under Trump's
leadership in a precarious position, not necessarily by its own
initiative, discretion, design...
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
1
