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Georgia Conflict: "Russian Peacekeeping" or "Soviet Invasion"?

By       Message Brock Novak     Permalink
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View Ratings | Rate It Headlined to H3 8/14/08

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By the minute, the flimsy veneer of Russian “Peacekeeping” peels away to show the real purpose – (schemed) Georgia regime change and acquisition vis-à-vis invasion.

Georgian President Saakashvili "naively and grossly" (i.e. recklessly) underestimated the Russians as well as overestimating (in fact, arrogantly "assuming/expecting") the military commitment of NATO behind him. Two major blunders which doomed him and the Georgian people.

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It’s to late now but he should have been more astute to not have fallen into the Russia (Putin) bear trap. His own ego driven self importance getting the best of him. However, once he did and he became aware of the first Russian tank crossing into South Ossetia last week, should have realized that invasion force was not stopping in South Ossetia, but rather Tbilisi, and his presidency was over – toast.

He's now playing Russian roulette waiting for the inevitable. Putin has him in his crosshairs. A (really) bad place to be. He can't win.

Note: Don't forget, at the time of the Russian military incursion in South Ossetia, SO was in fact "internationally (including the UN - and therefore by default Russia too) recognized" as part of "sovereign Georgia", NOT Russia. A point most "Russian Peacekeeper" proponents conveniently dismiss and/or don't include in their comments.

Also, the SO separatists (of course recognizing SO has a quasi-autonomous government within the sovereignty of country Georgia and its national government) were aggressively taunting their "internationally recognized government - Georgia", provoking a (Moscow desired) Georgian military response, which it successfully received. The point here is that even with unique region autonomy, that still does not give the right for SO to taunt and provoke the internationally recognized mother country central government.

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Clearly Russia has been OK with South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) being internationally/UN recognized as part of Georgia (not Russia), given Russia having NOT pursued any international legal and/or diplomatic action vis-a-vis the international court system and/or the UN to change that status.

To "illustrate", the Georgia (vis-a-vis South Ossetia) incursion by Russia is essentially "derivatively analogous" to France all of a sudden (which to be clear it has not) deciding to hypothetically attack Canada because it thinks French Quebecians should be liberated. In fact, France (unlike Russia), WOULD NOT, as it respects international law, regardless of its view on Quebecian separation or not. If France  wants Quebec as a province, it would legally and responsibly  pursue through the UN or other appropriate international legal channels, rather than orchestrating/provoking a Canadian military assault on the province.    

Saakashvili is only now “getting it” (i.e. the big picture), evidence his last 24-48 hours criticisms of NATO for not militarily, standing behind him.  He’s learned the hard way, that merely harsh rhetoric from NATO directed at Russia is not enough to save the day.

Recall on Aug. 11, 2008 in an article titled:

“Commulism Muscle Flexing: Soviet(?)-Georgian War (II?) – Expect More”

The Analyst wrote the following which is now being borne out:

That Russian invasion strategy/objectives being - To derail NATO absorption of Georgia (and (send a message to) others going forward - "Stans", Ukraine, Baltic nations, etc. etc.), and (re)occupy Georgia. 

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In support of that strategy, their spread of desired outcomes:  

Minimally, the desired result being the first take-back of lost Soviet territory (South Ossetia), as well as the political death of a major Putin (the real Russian leader – it’s not Medvedev) thorn – Saakashvili, and ability to leverage a pro-Russian puppet leader into the Georgian Presidency who will eventually seek reunification with Russia, and   

Optimally (Desired), the complete immediate occupation (re-absorption) of Georgia if NATO provides a total de-facto hands off military and political approach (a mere angry vote in the U.N. Security Council fits the bill as hands off) and Russia can fabricate reports of it being attacked by the Georgian military and acting in self defense in its continued march towards the Georgian capital Tbilisi. This outcome dependent upon the level of global backlash to the invasion. If severe, the "minimal" goal above will suffice for Putin, with the "optimal goal" temporarily delayed, but now positioned for success.”

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