The Analyst coins the Russian "2 step forward one step back, delay and progress" plan as the "Stall to Advance" or "Gaming the Ceasefire" plan.
Bottom line, whatever the Russians say in terms of abiding by the Ceasefire and stating intention to withdraw "this day or that" or "this city or that", is just patently false rhetoric, as events will ultimately bear out. Bottom line, they came for 3 reasons (i.e. getting rid of Saakashvili, taking back Georgia and telling the world - "we're back") , and they are NOT leaving Georgia - ever (again). NATO needs to wake up and recognize that fact of life, and stop getting suckered by (hopeful) Russian promises and follow-on proven lies. In fact, Russia can't be trusted.
Clearly the readily confirmed “pre-planned positioning” (i.e. 1200 or so tanks and 15,000 troops - overwhelming military might - you can't flip a switch and have a force like that, including support infrastructure, magically appear - impossible) vis-a-vis months of buildup, of a Russian invasion force this size on the northern border of South Ossetia ready to strike with a pre-planned trigger, confirms the intent – invasion not peacekeeping. The trigger being South Ossetia separatists directed by the Kremlin at a specific point in time at Putin’s choosing, to provoke an overconfident (and naive) Georgian leadership/military to perilous and dooming military action. Indeed a Russian bear trap. In fact, Mr. Putin is very strategic. This action has been in the planning phases for years, both militarily and the political/diplomatic points expected to address along the way – e.g. symbolic (stop and go) ceasefire, etc.
On the Ceasefire accord, how must French President and current EU President Sarkozy feel today, after waving the ceasefire papers in victory to the EU and French people Tuesday on his breakthrough peace accomplishment and now the Russians completely and disrespectfully running all over it, and him. Probably not unlike Neville Chamberlain did after waving the appeasement papers at the airport upon his return from Germany in 1938, signing over the Sudetenland. For an increasingly unpopular (and gullible) President like Sarkozy, not a legacy anyone would want. Bottom-line, Putin took Sarkozy (and Saakashvili) to the cleaners, as he plays not by good faith diplomatic rules but rather those which only he knows – ruthless KGB rules.
The real significance of this Georgian action is that it signifies Russia, after two decades of rebuild, has re-achieved minimal superpower status (and getting ever stronger) and will no longer sit idle and let its former allies and republics declare and move west. In fact, Georgia (really Kosovo independence being the catalyst trigger for Georgia) is his formal line in the sand stating the hemorrhaging stops and the rebuilding (of the Soviet Union (II)) begins. In fact, the de-facto occupation of South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) is the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union 2 decades ago, where Russia has “gained property/influence”. And it won’t be the last by a long shot. Expect attempts at huge gains in the future.
Some may say well an invasion/annexation makes no sense as Russia loses more than it gains.
The question – Does it?
When one really analyzes that question and the man Vladimir Putin and his ego driven goal (to be Czar of Soviet Union II), there really is more to gain than lose from “his” perspective.
What Putin loses:
- G8 Status – Maybe…As a former KGB’er and West hater, he doesn’t like any of the other 7 members anyway, so this is a sacrifice he’ll make. He siphoned what he needed from the group these last few years, which has certainly helped Russia economically rejuvenate itself. He also will prefer membership in the emerging “Commulism G3 – CG3” club – China, Russia, and Vietnam with Cuba and North Korea likely to rapidly rid themselves of Marxist economic principles and raw Communism, and adopt next generation Commulism as the CG3 have. And don’t forget other likely club wannabees such as Venezuela (given Chavez' lack of global stage (i.e. camera) spotlight (which he craves and devours) of recent, expect him to jump on the media bandwagon by making some grandiose pro-Russian statement at some point). Even include Iran in the mix. There are many others at risk of joining too unless the U.S./WEAST adopt the Author’s SWOOP plans as previously noted in Part 11 of the “Commulism Series”.
- Loss (potentially) of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, not far from the now Russian occupied Georgia breakaway province Abkhazia.
- He angers his ally China – from the standpoint the Georgia invasion takes long sought global PR spotlight away from the Beijing Olympics. Putin’s attitude – sometimes it’s better to ask forgiveness than permission. He knows the Chinese will get over it.
- Some positive global PR (political capital) he’s garnered during his facade G8 partner shtick the last 7 or 8 years. The world will condemn the invasion and annexation of Georgia, but he knows the public generally has a short attention span and memory and he plans to keep playing the peacekeeping/victim card to minimize the critical rhetoric.
- Exposing the facade that President Dimitry Medvedev is in charge. He's nothing but a puppet, Putin's Puppet, and the product of sham democracy/elections. In fact, in one week’s time, the phony facade of Medvedev, as Russian Leader, is crystal clear and that the real power in Russia remains Putin.
This as predicted in the Analyst’s article: “Russian Dictatorship: Putin's Democracy Coup”, aka Vladimir's 3P's ("Putin's Puppet Plan").
- The public image that Putin has “a soul”. At least one that can be "seen looking into his eyes".
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