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Commulism Muscle Flexing: Soviet(?)-Georgian War (II?) – Expect More

By       Message Brock Novak     Permalink
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The 8-8-08 Russian invasion of Georgia has historical precedence and future projection impact significance in the Commulism gameplan.

On August 6, 2008, the Analyst wrote this article titled "Commulism Series" - Part 11: Strategic Partnerships - Creating and Thwarting. Here is the relevant precursor excerpt:“…….Also prone to this “conquer from within” strategic infiltration and/or overt military cross border action/invasion are the struggling economies of former Asian entities of the Soviet Union including among others, Georgia, a close U.S. ally and NATO member wannabee (as is Ukraine), and the “Stans”, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. A NATO paranoid, cornered cat Russia, is a very dangerous animal indeed". 

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Bottom line, the next time (i.e. now) Russia tries to take these countries over, whether they were formerly part of the Soviet Union or members of the Warsaw Pact, will preferably be via "butter" (economically - money, investment, oil, gas, etc.). However the "guns" (i.e. tanks, etc.) option remains a definite last option, Russia will not be shy to use.  

Like any cornered cat, Russia is prone to strike out and physically attack,  so a Cold War I era Hungarian style military invasion of these former Soviet Union country assets is still a plausible and disconcerting option. And why that distinct possibility should not be discounted by the U.S./WEAST, and most definitely factored into their SWOOP/Fusion Warfare strategies. 

….In fact, while Russia seeks to subvert from within, there still exists the very real threat of all out overt Russian military confrontation/invasion not only in Kosovo but others like Ukraine and Georgia. Kosovo then the potential catalyst to formally spark the movement towards Cold War II, as China and Russia denounce the Kosovian move and any other potential former Soviet republics and/or separatist state waiting in the wings. Key examples as noted previously being Ukraine and Georgia seeking NATO membership which has Russia (Putin) seething and eager to thwart any such result…Russia’s (and China’s) paranoia with the Kosovo independence move is not unlike its paranoia of the West during Cold War 1.  

While it's temporarily gone media silent, the Kosovo independence action may be the catalyst ("tolerance tipping point" for Russia) to precipitate/accelerate the new global realignment, as well as Russia drawing a formal line in the sand on any other former allied states and/or former Soviet Union republics “Drifting/Declaring West”.”  

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Interestingly, on the heels of the noted article above, on August 8, 2008 the world media reported the Russians invaded Georgia. Perhaps too a case of déjà vu all over again.

 Wikipedia notes: 

“The Red Army invasion of Georgia, also known as the Soviet-Georgian War (February 15-March 17, 1921) was a military campaign by the Soviet Russian (RSFSR) Red Army against the Democratic Republic of Georgia (DRG) aimed at overthrowing the local Social-Democratic (Menshevik) government and installing the Bolshevik regime in the country. The conflict was a result of expansionist policy by the Soviets, who aimed at control of the same territories which had been part of Imperial Russia until the turbulent events of World War 1, as well as the revolutionary efforts of mostly Russia-based Georgian Bolshevik elite, who did not enjoy sufficient support in their native country to seize power without foreign intervention.” 

Author’s Note:  The 1921 Soviet-Georgian war fell right into the Russian history period known as "Civil War and Military Intervention of 1917–1922". This period culminated in the official launch of the Soviet Union in 1922, making Georgia one of the founding pieces of the USSR. Putin would like to make it a founding piece of USSR 2, by force again.  

This incursion by Soviet Union successor Russia into Georgia is not a minor, local squabble or skirmish. Rather, it has historical precedence and future global ramifications. Vladimir Putin, still the power in Russia who considers himself Soviet not Russian, is an A+ student in Soviet/Russian history. With an ego driven intent to becoming the greatest leader in Russian/Soviet history, by building an even greater Soviet Union II, Georgia provides not only a way to relive Soviet history but to begin that rebuild to glory.

 

While the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia both consider themselves more Russian than Georgian and tensions between Georgia and Russia were strained over the Pankisi Gorge, a lawless region of Georgia that Russia said had become a haven for Islamic militants and Chechen rebels, these are all but convenient (yet non-justifiable) excuses for the invasion.

Instead, this is really about Russia drawing that anticipated Commulism line in the sand, with the above elements being the long awaited convenient excuse to invade. This “need to takeover” or perhaps better described by Russia as “need to stop the hemorrhaging”, being triggered by the pivotal last straw Kosovo independence action several months ago. That event coupled with Russia now rebuilt and regaining its “critical minimal” superpower mass, has moved Russia forever from its last 2 decades effectively on the sidelines. It will no longer sit and watch former allies and Soviet republics “declare NATO". 

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Adding to its newfound confidence, Russia has apparently sized up NATO as having no stomach to counter its aggression militarily. Unfortunately for Georgian President Saakashvili, a profoundly staunch pro-western leader and ally, his expectations were quite the opposite. And why he will be gravely disappointed when no help arrives and he just like Georgia’s march toward Democracy and the West become one of the big losers in all this, as per the Russian strategy.

That Russian invasion strategy/objectives being - To derail NATO absorption of Georgia (and (send a message to) others going forward - "Stans", Ukraine, Baltic nations, etc. etc.), and (re)occupy Georgia. 

In support of that strategy, their spread of desired outcomes:

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