Instead, this is really about Russia drawing that anticipated Commulism line in the sand, with the above elements being the long awaited convenient excuse to invade. This “need to takeover” or perhaps better described by Russia as “need to stop the hemorrhaging”, being triggered by the pivotal last straw Kosovo independence action several months ago. That event coupled with Russia now rebuilt and regaining its “critical minimal” superpower mass, has moved Russia forever from its last 2 decades effectively on the sidelines. It will no longer sit and watch former allies and Soviet republics “declare NATO".
Adding to its newfound confidence, Russia has apparently sized up NATO as having no stomach to counter its aggression militarily. Unfortunately for Georgian President Saakashvili, a profoundly staunch pro-western leader and ally, his expectations were quite the opposite. And why he will be gravely disappointed when no help arrives and he just like Georgia’s march toward Democracy and the West become one of the big losers in all this, as per the Russian strategy.
That Russian invasion strategy/objectives being - To derail NATO absorption of Georgia (and (send a message to) others going forward - "Stans", Ukraine, Baltic nations, etc. etc.), and (re)occupy Georgia.
In support of that strategy, their spread of desired outcomes:
Minimally, the desired result being the first take-back of lost Soviet territory (South Ossetia), as well as the political death of a major Putin (the real Russian leader – it’s not Medvedev) thorn – Saakashvili, and ability to leverage a pro-Russian puppet leader into the Georgian Presidency who will eventually seek reunification with Russia, and
Optimally (Desired), the complete immediate occupation (re-absorption) of Georgia if NATO provides a total de-facto hands off military and political approach (a mere angry vote in the U.N. Security Council fits the bill as hands off) and Russia can fabricate reports of it being attacked by the Georgian military and acting in self defense in its continued march towards the Georgian capital Tbilisi. This outcome dependent upon the level of global backlash to the invasion. If severe, the "minimal" goal above will suffice for Putin, with the "optimal goal" temporarily delayed, but now positioned for success.
The “new Russia”, soon to be Soviet Union II, has clearly come of age and concluded after careful analysis that as respects non-NATO countries (ex Afghanistan with the U.S. derivatively attacked triggering the NATO Treaty Article V) like Georgia, NATO is all talk no action, particularly where no treaty aspect exists. Georgia was knocking on NATO’s door and Russia was simply looking for an excuse to close that door. It got it from South Ossetia separatists which mostly view themselves as Russian, as does the other Georgia breakaway province of Abkhazia. The approach/attitude by Russia not unlike Germany’s appeal for the Sudetenland section of Czechoslovakia in 1938, when Germany claimed this as a former part of Germany, dominated by German people.
So the combination of drawing a line in the sand to prevent further Russian “border countries attrition” and resultant NATO buildup, the opportunity to recreate early Bolshevik history by Putin, all coupled with Georgia’s keen strategic energy position with 3 major strategic pipelines (see note below) passing through its central territory near the capital Tbilisi, put Georgia squarely in Putin’s bulls-eye. It suggests that NATO wake up and realize that Russia has once again come of age as an aggressor and a force to be reckoned with, and will resume its hardnosed Cold War 1 UN shoe banging (and acquisition) days, ala Nikita Krushchev.
Pipeline Note: The largest being the 1 million barrel per day oil Baku-Tbilisi-Cehyan (BTC) Pipeline between Turkey and the Caspian Sea. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the BTC pipeline was built as an alternative to using Russian territory, and became the second longest oil pipeline in the world. Second only to the Druzhba pipeline, which transports oil from southeast Russia (and Kazakhstan) to eastern and western Europe. The Russians clearly would like to have control of the BTC pipeline. As well as control of two other significant pipeline systems crossing Georgia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Gas Pipeline, and the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline.
Indeed, the Georgia invasion is further confirmation Commulism has arrived. It is challenging a U.S./WEAST coalition that has grown soft and complacent after two decades of no offsetting superpower competitive threat. Now, almost overnight however, it has not just one (China), but two (Russia) collaborative superpowers to contend with. Going forward, Russia and China will no longer sit back and watch, but now dictate. Evidence for example the U.N. Security Council debate and vote over the next few days on the still being drafted U.S., Britain and France resolution to a Georgia-Russia ceasefire. All expect the Russians to veto it. The key is the Chinese. A veto or abstention proves the disturbing collusionary Commulism line in the sand has been drawn.
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