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OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 10/27/19

Climate Risks and Wildfires, Glacier Melt, Flooding plus ... an Antelope

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Message Arshad M Khan

California wildfires are again in the news as the Kincade Fire now raging risks 50,000 people, who have been evacuated. It might come as a surprise but there have been 41,074 wildfires compared to 47,853 in 2018 for the first nine months of the year. Blame the downslope Santa Ana winds for fanning them. Fires can occur naturally through lightning strikes but these days some 90 percent are due to human carelessness: discarded cigarettes, unquenched campfires and the like, all exacerbated by a warming climate. Killing 85 people, the deadliest wildfire in the state's history seemed to have been caused by Pacific Gas and Electric power lines (although it is still under investigation), and they are suspected in the present Kincade Fire. Wildfires do clear brush -- 4.4 million acres burned off this year -- ensuring a worse fire will not occur in the future.


As can be expected, such fires also place property at risk. California, Texas and Colorado have the highest numbers of properties at risk, while Montana and Idaho are tops in percentage terms; in Montana 29 percent and in Idaho 26 percent of properties are in the danger zone.


If the west is prone to wildfires, the east has an opposite problem: flooding. Sea levels are rising. The Greenland ice sheet holding enough water to raise the water line by 7 meters is melting. Scientists estimate two-thirds of the ice loss is due to glacier calving as chunks of ice detach from the 300-odd outlet glaciers that end in the fjords. As reported in Science magazine recently (October 11, 2019), Helheim, a major glacier responsible for 4 percent of Greenland's annual ice loss, is being observed by a team headed by Fiamma Straneo of the Scripps Institution.


In severe retreat since 2014, the glacier has reduced "by more than 100 meters, leaving a tell-tale ring on the rock around the fjord." This summer its water temperature is 0.2C above the previous high in a relentless rise. Also the data collected will improve mathematical modeling to predict future consequences.


Coastal flooding on the East coast has been noted by the New York Times (October 8, 2019) in a feature article, "As Sea Levels Rise, So Do Ghost Forests". Trees in coastal areas are dying off due to frequent total incursions of saltwater.


An excellent estimate of coastal flooding on the East and Gulf coasts, Encroaching Tides, was prepared by the Union of Concerned Scientists a few years ago. Sober reading, it forecasts coastal inundation over the next three decades. It talks about adaptation to the new norms, the responsibility of municipalities, states and the federal government, sea walls, economic consequences, and a retreat from heavily impacted areas. Is anybody listening, and when they called for reducing emissions was the US listening?


When more than 190 countries signed up to almost all of the rule-book buttressing the 2015 Paris Agreement, it made the 24th International Climate Conference in Katowice, Poland (December 2018) a major success. This December the 25th International Climate Conference will convene in Santiago, Chile. A primary issue before it is how to avoid double counting; i.e., counting the same emission reduction more than once. Countries have so far failed to reach common ground on how to avoid it despite the threat to carbon markets underpinning the Paris Agreement. Is bashing heads together in Santiago one answer?


Meanwhile on the top of the world, inhabiting the Tibet plateau, the beautiful and majestic chiru or Tibetan antelope, once in trouble from excessive poaching and then recovering, is at risk again. This time it is due to climate change. It has caused excessive melt and a burst natural dam that used to surround Lake Zonag right beside their calving site.


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Arshad M Khan is a former Professor. Educated at King's College London, Oklahoma State University and the University of Chicago, he has a multidisciplinary background that has frequently informed his research. He was elected a Fellow of the (more...)
 
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