The U.S. should immediately conduct an in-depth comprehensive review/assessment of global food (agriculture) and water resources with the understanding that in addition to oil, China requires new sources of non-domestic water and food to satisfy/fuel its population and economic juggernaut. The objective then to identify global strategic choke points for these resources and set up blocking/choking strategies.
That is, identify where there is abundance of either and/or both, as well as those countries/regions that have the potential to be rapidly and broadly developed (food). As the Chinese are doing the same analysis and targeting, this offsetting U.S./WEAST analysis will determine where the Chinese focus will be and where the U.S. “Food/Water SWOOP” should be targeted.
Ensure as part (component) of this a very detailed continental Africa analysis is included. Note the Harvard International Review article in e) above regarding China’s interest in Africa’s natural resources.
One illustrative way to look at this Food/Water SWOOP is to treat the situation as an oncologist might address a particular cancer, specifically angiogenesis, the process tumors take to develop their needed blood supply flows. Research has already generated one approved angiogenesis inhibitor, designed to stop tumor growth by cutting off the blood supply that fuels that growth. Like the tumor, this newly developed SWOOP should be developed analogously to an angiogenesis inhibitor, designed to stop China’s growing global economic and military power, by cutting off its own analogous blood supply, i.e. third party water and food (and minerals/oil) sources.
To underscore the importance of food and water (and minerals) sources, water in particular, it is soon to become the “New Oil”, in terms of global economic importance. In fact, many believe as wars of today are about oil, future wars will be fought over water, as this resource becomes increasingly scarce, while demand skyrockets. The days of care free toilet flushing are coming to an end.
Analyst Supplemental Notes:
1) Cuba SWOOP - The U.S. and WEAST should prepare a SWOOP engagement plan to implement upon Fidel Castro’s death (if not cautiously immediately),which evident recent news reports, might not be far in the offing. His recent resignation as President is not a true change in power as he still maintains and runs the Cuban leadership inner circle, including brother Raul who assumed the Presidency.
That engagement plan should cater to Raul Castro’s interest in self preservation, itself a function of the people’s interest to a return to the pre-revolution glory days of capitalism and wealth generation, absent the corruption of course. He totally lacks the Fidel’s charisma and legend and therefore will need to rely more on compromise for survival. A lifting of the 4 decade old embargo is something both brothers crave and now be a more leverageable negotiation tool for changes. It would however, be naïve to think Raul Castro will ever fully dismiss communism for democracy, but his brand of Commulism, unlike the Chinese, may be one the U.S. and WEAST can take advantage of.
The question then being how can the U.S. and WEAST leverage this softening to exploit Cuba’s substantive geo-political connections and influence throughout the globe, to their advantage, turning Cuba from Cold War political liability to future political/economic asset. In particular, leverage Cuba’s leadership in the global “non-aligned movement” to in fact achieve better alignment with those nations the U.S./WEAST need to but can’t without a door opener like Cuba.
Putting that in perspective, and the “influence play” potential with Cuba, note that Cuba was the principal architect in the construct and launch of the NAM – “Non-Aligned Movement” in 1979. That group was born in 1979 in Havana under the “Havana Declaration of 1979”. Fidel Castro was NAM’s first President and interestingly in Sept. 2006, re-elected for a second term. Even more intriguing, was the subsequent assignment of Raul Castro as Acting NAM President until Fidel Castro recovers from his illness, which again, may never happen.
In other words, Cuba has access and influence to/on many nations the U.S. either needs to better or start embracing (as does China), and Raul is now “Chairman of the Board” or gatekeeper so to speak of this group. He’s stealthily emerging as a potential major power player. Cuba’s (Raul’s) value then is as a door opener or strategic “influence play”. As of 2007, the NAM comprised an astounding 118 nations.
An emerging opportunity here for the U.S. and WEAST to put the past behind and temper/remove one of the United States’ legacy, disproportionately time consuming thorns to create a vastly improved relationship situation and the “global access benefits” that flow accordingly. Of course, this collaboration would not be at the expense or cost of ever endorsing any aspect of Cuba’s communism ideology, regardless of whatever form or remainder exists post Fidel.
2) Phased-Democracy Approach - As a sidebar comment, the Analyst recommends these SWOOP'S “must” also include a fundamental shift in U.S. thinking, understanding and interaction (see Analyst's article (link below) on Pakistan Crisis and the “Phased Democracy” approach); a recognition and reflection that these countries are not the U.S., each is uniquely different (to the U.S. and each other), and they must be respected as such.
See previous Pakistan article linked earlier.
B) Immediately Restructure/Transition/Transform the “G8+5” to “G9+2”, then to “G11”:
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