The average GOP 1.2% LV poll margin exceeded the RV average by 6.3%.
The average GOP LV margin exceeded the recorded average by 1.6%.
The average GOP recorded margin exceeded the RV average by 4.6%
Competitive states: 18 Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote (Table 2)
The average GOP 4.2% recorded margin exceeded the average exit poll margin by 2.9%.
The average GOP 6.3% LV poll margin exceeded the average recorded margin by 2.1%.
CO and WA vote primarily by mail. The Democrats won both.
WI, PA and IL vote primarily by machine. The GOP won all three.
Thanks to the late Warren Mifofsky, the father of exit polling, we have the unadjusted exit polls. In Jan. 2005, Edison-Mitofsky released the 2004 Election Evaluation Report in a response to the 2004 exit poll controversy , The pollsters concluded that although their survey design was near-perfect, the 6.5% within precinct discrepancy (WPE) was due to reluctance on the part of Bush voters to be interviewed. This theory was refuted by the exit pollsters own data which showed the opposite: Bush voter exit poll response was greater in Bush than Kerry strongholds. But the full report showed much more than that.
In the five presidential elections from 1988-2004, there were 238 state presidential exit polls. The focus of the evaluation report was on 2004; very few noticed the exit poll results going back to 1988. But some analysts took close notice. And the data revealed that 2004 was not an aberration.
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