According to my analysis, this is a situation that offers great opportunity for a safe diplomatic solution.
The fraudulent claim to
Taiwan that is being made by the PRC seems to be widely unrecognized as such in the news coverage of the matter. Perhaps it is even unrecognized in diplomatic circles as well.
That presents the opportunity to pull the rug out from under
China's claim to
Taiwan.
China is on a clear course in search of a more significant role in world affairs. At the 2017 Party Congress, while speaking about the future, President Xi Jinping proclaimed, "It will be an era that sees
China moving closer to center stage and making greater contributions to mankind."
Being characterized as a scoundrel-state exploiting widespread ignorance about the real status of
Taiwan would seem to conflict with that aspiration. Certainly, the
United States has the capability to acquaint the world with the PRC-Taiwan fraud. That could be a significant and confidential negotiating point -- one aimed at reshaping
Beijing's strategic assumptions rather than publicly contesting its narrative.
This would require a stark reevaluation of the situation by the Trump administration. The choice is between the present course of military escalation on one hand, and using a truthful redefinition of the situation surrounding
Taiwan on the other. What will be the administration's chosen direction?
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