Under the cover of the false sense of security built up in the West, Putin has shrewdly orchestrated a "platform for rebirth" of the new (and improved) Soviet Union, systematically taking back liberties, recreating the KGB under a different moniker FSB, embodying new robust economic principles and rebuilding the military's offensive capabilities, and he himself positioning for Czar-like status as either "National Leader" or "President for Life" vis--vis "Vladimir's 3P 3 Step" Plan outlined in:
After a decade and a half since the Soviet Union collapse and in somewhat quiet hiatus, the last 6 or 7 years have shown the signs of military resurgence including among many, the Russians resuming strategic air patrols on its borders, conducting complex military exercises with the Chinese, sending naval forces (i.e. recently, a carrier group) to the Mediterranean. That all crystallized and personified with the August 8, 2008 military (and cyber-warfare) invasion of former Soviet Republic Georgia. Interstingly too, the date China said "we've arrived" with the start of the Beijing Olympics. The West wanted to think it nothing but a Russian mistake not to be repeated. The Russians, a "burn and learn" event.
To understand Putin and the direction (gameplan) he is following requires a basic and clear understanding of Russian history and Putin's motivations. On the latter critical aspect, Putin considers himself Soviet, "not" Russian, with Stalin-like power aspirations.
As for history and what it can tell us, remember, Putin "thinks Soviet" and longs for a return to those glory days where he cut his teeth. The same thinking his now deceased friend and ally President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela followed lockstep in the footsteps of the great "Liberator" (and dictator) Simon Bolivar of the early 1800's, so too is Putin following his star leadership ancestry (Lenin and Stalin, etc) in building out Russia -- again.
That said, Russia today is indeed eerily reminiscent of Russia in 1922. As in 1922, poised again today to shift from being simply Russia to a union of several (many) entities, together creating increasing, synergistic strength. Back then it was the integration of the Russian (known as Bolshevist Russia ), Ukrainian , Belarusian , and Transcaucasian Soviet republics, all ruled by Bolshevik parties. The Transcaucasian republics comprised what is today Georgia , Armenia , and Azerbaijan . Initially established as a union of these four Soviet Socialist Republics (SSR's), the USSR grew to contain 15 constituent or "Union Republics" by 1956: Armenian SSR , Azerbaijan SSR , Byelorussian SSR , Estonian SSR , Georgian SSR , Kazakh SSR , Kyrgyz SSR , Latvian SSR , Lithuanian SSR , Moldavian SSR , Russian SFSR , Tajik SSR , Turkmen SSR , Ukrainian SSR , and Uzbek SSR . (From annexation of Estonian SSR on August 6 , 1940 up to reorganization of Karelo-Finnish SSR into Karelian ASSR on July 16 , 1956 , the count of "union republics" was 16.
Add to this the buffering Warsaw Pact countries of Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Romania, etc and the truly formidable aspect of the prior Soviet Union becomes clear. Contrasting sharply with the Russia of today, being relatively speaking, but a glimmer of that former collective power base, and one Putin wants to not only reconstitute but to greatly expand.
Putin, for all the glad handing visits to Waco Texas, and photo op portrayals by the paparazzi as President Bush's good friend, is anything but. Those being merely goodwill gestures to put a positive global opinion spin to fool and seduce the world to believe that he and Russia are friends of the West and a friend of Democracy. In fact, exactly what the West "wanted to hear". As if a contestant on the TV show Survivor, his is to outwit, outlast and outplay the West, and so far, pretty good at it, and without having to play any immunity idols yet either.
When President Bush famously, favorably and glowingly (and quite naively) said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul, one can now question just how deep that look went. Clearly, not very. Interestingly, no one asked Putin what he saw in Bush's. Perhaps today he'd say "an easy mark". His purposeful façade in fact hiding the real man and the real plan. He was and remains a diehard believer in the Breshnev Doctrine. The only difference being his thinking is not so close-minded as Breshnev, and willing to update that doctrine to reflect the economic realities that socialism in any form cannot survive without a strong capitalism component. The same as the Chinese learned. In his "evolved" Soviet mind, capitalism becomes a necessary evil to perpetuate the communism ideology and fuel his grand comeback scheme.
As point of reference, the Breshnev Doctrine noted as follows:
When for ces that are hostile to socialism try to turn the development of some socialist country towards capitalism, it becomes not only a problem of the country concerned, but a common problem and concern of all socialist countries."
Implicit in this doctrine was that the leadership of the Soviet Union reserved to itself the right to define "socialism" and "capitalism". Thus, "socialism" was defined according to the Soviet model, and anything significantly different from this model was considered to be a step towards capitalism.
Let's update this thinking under Putin. Call the Analyst's draft Breshnev update below the "Putin Soviet Re-Union Doctrine":
When for ces that are hostile to socialism try to turn the development of some socialist country towards PURE capitalism, as in the case of the former USSR republics and Warsaw Pact nations, it becomes not only a problem of the country and/or former Republic concerned, but a common problem and concern of all socialist countries.
While we have come to accept the need for market driven economics, we do not accept the democracy aspects of PURE capitalism". In other words, we embrace Commulism and will collectively align with and defend other Commulist nations (ie China, etc.).
Putin's strategy to defeat NATO, as respects restoring "Russia to Soviet" and Soviet influence over NATO-EAST members is a mixed virtual-real one, all the more impressive considering it may done without firing a single shot. For NATO-EAST, it will be a virtual takeover through internal subversion and influence. To the non NATO-EAST former Soviet republics, the Crimea (acquisition) appears a first test "no-shoot" done deal, where physical absorption of the country is the goal and inevitable, soon. Too, the Georgian incursion suggests and puts enough uncertainty into the West thinking as to how far Putin will go. Putin has made it clear, armed invasion is an option Russia will use.
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