His strategy takes advantage of the West's strategic economic dependence on Russia (oil and natural gas sales to Europe) and too the West's disdain for "combat indigestion", particularly when no one has been fired upon. This not unlike Putin's benign approach to Dictatorship vis--vis leveraging Democracy. If he can manipulate Democracy through coercion as appears the case in the Crimea and Ukraine, he can fall behind the excuse "hey world, they voted me (Russia) to come in and set up shop, and incorporate them under Russian control. "They" voted me in". A strategy the West clearly is not prepared for and struggling to react to with no answer or response to, evidence this first real test - the Crimea.
Rather than massing 10,000 tanks and 2 million men on NATO's border as the case in Cold War 1, he instead plans to "undermine from within, without overt acquisition" the former Soviet Union Warsaw Pact (now NATO-EAST) countries, and "undermine from within, with overt acquisition" former Soviet (non-NATO) republics like Ukraine, Belarus and the "Stans".
The subverting from within of the now NATO former Warsaw Pact countries done without massive invading armies from the outside, thereby technically not triggering a NATO military response, per the current NATO Treaty.
To get a sense of just how pervasive and far reaching this Russian "tunneling" or "undermining from within" strategy has already been effectuated, the Analyst excerpts a Nov 11, 2007 New York Times articles on Russia and the Baltic states. Its only worsened since.
In it, " Jonas Kronkaitis, retired as Lithuania's top general states"a worry eats at him: Russian power is rapidly returning to the Baltics, only this time the weapons are oil and money, not tanks"He engineered its entry into NATO in 2004, thinking this would help cement security for the tiny Baltic nation. Now he says his hopeful view was wrong. The signs of Russia 's resurgent influence are everywhere in Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia : in Kremlin-financed media; in the financing of local politicians and economic development; in a growing assertiveness, encouraged by Moscow"in the Kremlin's manipulation of its energy supplies as a bludgeon...These tactics, especially the use of Russian cash, have evoked stress in the Baltics that was unthinkable even five years ago"."What we are afraid of is the very huge money that comes from Russia that can be used to corrupt our officials," General Kronkaitis said"."And I'm talking about very large money. Money can then be used to control our government. Then Lithuania, in a very subtle way, over many years perhaps, becomes dominated and loses its independence"."Over many years" may be an understatement, Baltic nationalists say....It all seems part of a strategy by President Vladimir Putin to revive Russian power in much of Eastern Europe" "Russians buy our politicians, they buy our press, and they buy our minds -- I think that's all," Indre Makaraityte, editor of Revival, an independent Lithuanian newspaper, said sarcastically"."We became members of NATO and E.U. expecting we would be defended immediately," she said. "There's a fear of Russia, and a fear that we are again alone, not defended by our Western partners. They are too naïve in evaluating Russia."
Clearly NATO has turned, or simply has a blind eye to this infiltration. Why? Because the key term in the NATO treaty which would trigger NATO action and hasn't, which Putin's "Soviet ReUnion" Plan effectively bypasses, is "armed" conflict.
In other words, he's found a loophole in the NATO defense agreement which he can exploit the new Commulism ideology to secure his objectives.
Here's the pertinent NATO Treaty (Article V) language:
The Parties of NATO agreed that an "armed attack" against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all. Consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence will assist the Party or Parties being attacked, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
What To Do:
1) NEED FOR A NEW AWARENESS PARADIGM:
NATO needs to immediately recognize:
- Putin is not pro-Democracy
- Putin is KGB and will always be KGB
- Putin's motivational DNA is Soviet, not Russian
- In the backdrop of rapidly growing superpower China, and the U.S. "pivot" towards Asia (China), the ego and power driven Putin has a desperate need to be "headline relevant", which makes the developing situation very uncertain and he very dangerous.
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