The most recent poll is Survey USA’s and has McCain up by seven. 8% of Democrats and 9% of women are still undecided here, but it would take a near sweep by Obama to pull ahead. It’s very unlikely that Obama takes Missouri’s 11 electoral votes.
Colorado
Colorado has become a hot ticket for Democrats in recent years, and this environmentally friendly state holds promise for Obama. The latest Quinnipac poll here has Obama up, with 49% to McCain’s 44%. Obama leads McCain amongst women, 53% to 39%, and has a huge lead amongst independents. It looks like it would take a massive shift to put Colorado back in the red category in November, so I’ll give Obama these nine electoral votes.
Florida
Rasmussen has McCain up 48% to 41% in Florida, and it looks unlikely that Obama will pull out a win here. Obama has 71% of Democrats and a two point lead amongst women, but even a sweep of undecideds leaves Obama short of these 27 electoral votes.
North Carolina
Rasmussen, the most recent non-partisan poll in the Tar Heel State, has McCain up 45% to 43%. Obama pulls 76% of Democrats, but it’s going to be a close one and a defection by Clinton backers could keep these 15 electoral votes out of Obama’s hands. A win for Obama here is definitely possible, but decidedly unlikely.
Ohio
Survey USA has Obama up 48% to 46%. Obama takes 59% of women and 75% of Democrats, with 7% and 5% undecided, respectively, along with 16% of independents. Obama should take the lion’s share of the remaining independent vote, but if a substantial number of remaining Democrats and Women go to McCain, the Republican could take these 20 electoral votes. Obama has the edge here, but I’m not ready to give it to him.
So what does all that add up to? Obama comes out with 273 electoral votes, with wins in Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado. I see those four states as almost certain victories for Obama, insofar as there is any certainty in such things. That also assumes, of course, that Obama loses Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri — and that is very unlikely.
The long and short of it is, Senator Obama is poised for a landslide victory in the electoral college, regardless of the defections of Clinton supporters. The nationwide polls demonstrating that only bare majorities of Clinton supporters would back Obama don’t mean anything. The bulk of those voters are likely in states that Obama won’t lose — states like New York — or states that Obama definitely will lose, like West Virginia. Most of the states in play now are states that Obama won, often by landslides, in the primary. The bottom line is this: Most likely, support for Obama amongst Clinton voters will rise significantly between now and November. But even now, with nearly a quarter of Democrats not backing Obama, the stage is set for a monumental shift in the electoral map. Obama is running neck and neck with McCain in states like Virginia and North Carolina and Indiana without full Democratic support. For reference, those states went to Bush in 2004 by margins of 8.2%, 12.4%, and 20.7% respectively. If that doesn’t signal something huge, I just don’t know what does.
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