The Obama Campaign appears to be taking the problem very seriously. Most recently, it was announced that Dana Singiser, the Clinton campaign’s women’s outreach director, has been hired on to continue that role for Obama. The degree to which the disaffection with Obama demonstrated by many Clinton supporters will continue is difficult to discern. Election day is still relatively far off, and much of this resentment may die down as the campaign proceeds and anger fades. But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that none of this resentment fades and these voters either stay home or vote McCain. What impact does that have on the electoral math?
Under virtually no circumstances will Obama lose California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Hawaii, The District of Columbia, or Maryland, and based on current polling it is very unlikely that he would lose New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. That amounts to 238 electoral votes, 32 short of the 270 needed to win.
That leaves Michigan, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio as tossups. Let’s go to the play-by-play.
Michigan
The most recent Quinnipac poll puts Obama at 48% to McCain’s 42%, a lead almost double the 3.4% victory John Kerry got there over President Bush. Obama pulls 52% of women, McCain 38%. Even if the 10% of women who are undecided go 2-to-1 for McCain, Obama takes Michigan and its 17 electoral votes.
Virginia
Virginia is going to be a squeaker, whatever happens. Survey USA puts Obama at 49% to McCain’s 47%. Women break 58% to 36% for Obama, with 5% undecided. If the majority of those 5% go for McCain, it could put Virginia’s 13 electoral votes out of Obama’s reach.
Nevada
Rasmussen’s latest here has McCain up 45% to 42% for Obama, down from a six point lead last month. Obama’s strength amongst Democrats has increased substantially following the suspension of Senator Clinton’s campaign, rising from 65% to 74%, and McCain trails amongst women by eight points. One quarter of unaffiliated voters in Nevada are still undecided — it would take a crystal ball that actually worked (I’m looking at you, Professor Sabato) to figure out the future in store for these five electoral votes.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire probably isn’t as close as it appears, but the lack of much polling data here makes it difficult to tell. Rasmussen’s mid-June poll is the most recent, and puts Obama up 50% to 39%. If those are hard numbers, and I’m inclined to think they are (particularly in like of the 2006 House races there), defections aren’t going to make a dent. That’s four electoral votes for Obama.
New Mexico
The two most recent polls here, conducted at almost the exact same time in mid-June, put Obama up by three and by eight. Rasmussen has Obama at 47% to McCain’s 39% (they also had Obama up 50% - 41% in May) and Survey USA has Obama at 49% to McCain’s 46%. Survey USA has Obama with 62% of women and 77% of Democrats with 5% undecided. Rasmussen has Obama at 72% among Democrats and an eleven point lead amongst women. This one goes to Obama with five more electoral votes.
Indiana
The last three polls here, spread out over several months, all show the same thing: a one point lead for Obama. The most recent, from June, is Survey USA’s, which shows a 48%-47% Obama lead — pretty incredible considering John Kerry lost Indiana by nearly 21%. Obama takes 51% of women and 78% of Democrats with two percent undecided in each group. If these numbers are right, even if half of undecided Democrats vote McCain, Obama still squeaks by in the Hoosier state. I’m not so bold as to go ahead and give Obama Indiana’s 11 electoral votes, but it’s hardly out of the question.
Missouri
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