What's really happening in this dangerous standoff? In the case of Israel, it is just continuing its policy to intimidate its major adversary in the Middle East, so that is nothing new. But, in the bigger picture, this is all about America's #2 client state in the Middle East, namely Iraq. Iran and Iraq have very deep ties going back many years and Iran has plans to significantly enhance this relationship when U.S. troops are gone. The problem lies with the fact that the U.S. is never going to withdraw all troops from Iraq and it will maintain a sizable military presence far into the future. This means that the confrontational situation that now exists will continue to maintain high tensions in the region.
And what of President Obama, the 2009 recipient of the coveted Nobel Peace Prize? Isn't this a perfect opportunity for him to step up and push for peace negotiation whereby the three nations could begin a dialogue aimed at finding solutions for their differences? Isn't this the man who had previously given inspiring speeches in Berlin and in Egypt to indicate to the world that he was a different kind of world leader; one who aspired to bringing peace between nations?
In witnessing Mr. Obama's manner in conducting wars in increasing areas of the world more and more writers and analysts are increasingly beginning to suspect that he may not be in control of U.S. military policy. While I certainly hope that it is not true, that might explain why our military presence continues to expand. I have read recent accounts of how our military is working to extending U.S. missile systems to Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and other European nations, with the intent to box in Russia and guard against attacks from Iran or even Syria.
To illustrate the gravity of this situation, a war games simulation was conducted by a section of the Washington-based Brookings Institution. The conclusions painted a very grim picture of what might happen if Israel launched an attack on Iran's suspected nuclear facilities. It concluded that Iran would strike back with a fury by mining the Strait of Hormuz, the passage way for supplying Middle East oil to the world. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, strong supporters of Iran, would begin massive rocket attacks on Israel. These altercations and others could easily spread into an all out war in the Middle East.
We as a nation need to learn from our mistakes, not continue to repeat them. The attack on Iraq, which should never have taken place, may have been a cakewalk for U.S. military power. But now we find ourselves mired down in a massive quagmire in Afghanistan. Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan had a military force that could repel an invasion. Iran, a nation of 72 million, has a formidable military force; an army, a navy, an air force and considerable offensive and defensive missile capability.
A very key question is: what might Russia and China, two major military powers do, if Iran is attacked? Both have close ties to Iran involving trade and have supplied it with advanced missile systems. Are they going to stand by and simply watch as Iran is attacked by Israel, the U.S. or both? Nobody knows what they might do. Israel and the U.S. must think long and hard about this situation and think about alternate ways to approach and solve international disagreements.
Considering the serious ramifications of an attack on Iran, might President Obama approve military action to involve America in yet another war? Is Israel capable of overacting, as it has in past military actions, and launching an attack, knowing full well that it could ignite a Middle East inferno? Will Iran continue to relentlessly taunt and push Israel and the U.S. to their limits? The answer to each of these questions is yes; war could erupt at any time.
This current war of words must not be allowed to escalate into a real shooting war that could inflame the entire Middle East. Cooler, more rational heads must prevail. But, the critical question is, will they?
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