What is Erdogan's Game in Syria and Iraq?

Sultan Changes the Subject

The downing of the Su-24 was a crude attempt by Erdogan to force NATO to choose his Turkmen/al-Nusra/anti-Kurd strategy instead of any possible coordination with Russia to fight ISIS/ISIL/Daesh.

Talk about a monumental blowback; Erdogan handed Moscow on a plate the deployment of the S-400s to Hmeymim. Short-term, this means any Turkish F-16 entertaining funny ideas over Syrian skies will be summarily shot down. Mid-term, this means the "Assad must go" obsession is now six feet under. But the cherry in the cake is long-term; Russia has solidified a permanent strategic stake in the eastern Mediterranean.

Across the battlefield, the most important development is that Russia, and not Iran, has taken over tactics, planning operations and also re-equipping the SAA with everything from 152-millimeter MTSA-B guns to the absolutely devastating TOS-1A Solnitsa rocket launcher, able to fire 30 220-mm thermobaric (incendiary) rockets in a single salvo.

Freshly arrived Russian Marines are also about to advise the SAA counter-offensive against Daesh in Tadmur, western Palmyra.

The Russian tactic is essentially to blow everything up, big time. Of course this implies a serious risk of civilian casualties -- something that can only be alleviated by good ground intel, provided by the SAA. It's the SAA that is actually capturing those areas on the ground.

With his back against the wall in Syria, Erdogan -- what else -- changed the subject and made a play in Iraq, via the now famous "incursion" of alleged 150 Turkish troops along with 20-25 tanks.

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu swears Ankara had been "invited" in by the Nineveh provincial government, with Baghdad's approval (a bald-faced lie). A spokesman for the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq said everything is legit.

Turkish daily Hurriyet spun it as Ankara holding a permanent military base in Bashiqa, near Mosul, to train Peshmerga forces, a deal signed between KRG President Massoud Barzani and Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu earlier last month.

But Ankara, we got a (huge) problem. Mosul and Bashiqa are not even part of the KRG.

So this has nothing to do with training Peshmerga -- as much as Erdogan and the AKP heavily hedge their Kurd hatred: the KRG racket and the Peshmerga are "good Kurds," while the PYD/YPG and the PKK are "bad Kurds."

When in doubt, follow the oil. The Barzani Mob is selling oil that belongs to Baghdad to Turkey -- illegally. They literally own the oil racket in the KRG; and they make a killing, thanks to cozy relations with "partner."

Genel oil, whose chairman is Tony "Deepwater Horizon" Hayward.

It has been widely proved that Erdogan's son in law cum Energy Minister Berat Albayrak holds the exclusive rights to move KRG oil through Turkey. Following evidence collected by the Russian Defense Ministry, Daesh stolen oil may well be mixed with KRG oil along the way. And a key beneficiary of the whole scheme is Erdogan's son Bilal, a.k.a. Mini Me, through his BMZ shipping company which delivers the oil mostly to Israel. Mini Me is now self-exiled in Bologna, Italy, where he manages untraceable amounts of cash safely ensconced in Swiss bank accounts.

Obviously none of this is seriously examined in Atlanticist circles, thus providing Erdogan with some solace; if the stolen Syrian oil racket may be moribund, the Iraqi side of the op seems to be untouched.

So what we have now in effect is Turkey "violating" the borders of Iraq (remember those famous "17 seconds"?) Baghdad is actually part of the "4+1" coalition (Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah). Turkey knows it. The "incursion" is yet one more -- serious -- provocation. If Russia -- and Iran -- decide that's one too many, Erdogan's oil racket protecting tanks better get ready to meet their maker.