So everything now hinges on the break for the border. Syrian Kurds have been loudly announcing something along the lines that "Real Kurds go to Jarabulus." Jarabulus is, in a nutshell, Turkey's last stand in Syria (the Russian Air Force has all but exterminated the Turkmen fight column in northern Latakia).
Imagine a Kurdish unification corridor -- running from Afrin to the rest of Rojava. This means Turkey cut off from Syria; crucially, the end of the Jihadi Highway; the end of Turkish secret services offering lavish logistical support for Daesh, from Big Macs to holidays in Turkey; the end of the Syrian stolen oil Daesh Highway. Not to mention the YPG -- allied with the PKK -- controlling a semi-autonomous province with the status of a proto-state.
Make no mistake: the Sultan will go no holds barred to prevent it. ISIS was never an "existential threat" to Ankara. On the contrary; it was always a very useful indirect "ally." Ankara will continue to plug the myth that the road to Daesh's defeat goes through Assad regime change.
Russia exposed the bluff. Yet the lame duck Obama administration is still uncertain; should we use Erdogan even as he recklessly tries to pit NATO directly against Russia? Or should we dump him? The answer lies in who, and how, wins the break for the border.
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